Extreme Weather 

140 Frosts Registered In Vale Do Caminhos, Brazil This Year–A New Record; “Off The Scale” Greenland Blocking Suggests Arctic Freeze For Europe/Eastern North America; + Polar Bear Numbers At Highest Level In Six Decades

140 Frosts Registered This Year In Vale Do Caminhos, Brazil–A New Record

Unseasonable frosts returned to parts of Brazil on Friday, November 25, according to the country’s INMET network.

Vale do Caminhos da Neve, located 3 km from the center of São Joaquim, was covered by layer of ice.

[Mycchel Legnaghi]


This made it frost number 140 for the year, which is an all-time record, surpassing the 135 registered in 2016.


“Off The Scale” Greenland Blocking Suggests Arctic Freeze For Europe/Eastern North America

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forecast model has broken scale. Something big is brewing above Greenland.

As visualized below, the European NOA forecast model has plunged deep into negative territory–which is indicative of negative high pressure building over the North Atlantic and Greenland.


Strong negative NOA anomalies are rare, with the last seen in 2010 (I recall the associated record-breaking winter in Europe that season); but such a strong anomaly, as that which we’re seeing this year, is believed to be unprecedented.

In the ‘real world’, a negative NAO (aka Greenland blocking — see images below) wildly increases the chances of polar conditions funneling over the European continent (particularly Northern/Western nations) as cold northern air gets diverted south.

Similarly, the Eastern provinces/states of Canada/the U.S. are also more likely to endure Arctic Outbreaks during this setup.

Latest imagery of the Greenland high (looking out to Dec 9, 2022).
A more-general representation of the phenomenon.


Flicking through the weather books, I am not aware of a past northern blocking episode that has shown quite this level of intensity — they will surely have to rewrite the books after this one, as well as the charts, and all.

I am also unaware of such a major event not resulting in an outbreak of severe cold.

Also, and as recently discussed here, blocking highs have been found to be more prevalent during periods of prolonged solar decline–and so are to be expected during the Grand Solar Minimum cycle that we’re likely currently slipping into.



It can’t be overstated just how impressive these ensemble solutions are.

This Greenland blocking, in conjunction with an ongoing Scandinavian ridge retrograding westward and an Alaskan ridging event, will, most likely, bring some truly frigid, potentially record-breaking lows and snows to both Europe and Eastern North America during the first half of December, perhaps even as early as the 6th or 7th.

Confidence is growing in this pattern, but we’re still a ways off.

Saying that, the latest GFS run (shown below) is now hinting at a powerful Arctic Outbreak sweeping Europe during the first half of December. The accompanying snow totals look astonishing, particularly for the time of year:

GFS Total Snowfall (cm) Dec 5 – Dec 14 [tropicaltidbits.com].


A freezing winter, as we’ve discussed many times before, is the last thing Europe wants right now. The continent’s intensifying and entirely self-inflicted energy crisis is putting the lives of millions upon millions of people at risk — this is not hyperbole.


I’ll finish with a brief word on the Greenland ice sheet — and that word is ‘icy’:

[DMI]


Never before in weather books dating back to 1981 has the Greenland ice sheet had a stronger start to a season.

This also means colder polar air as it descends south.

It also means fine conditions for polar bears…


Polar Bear Numbers At Highest Level In Six Decades

Despite The Narrative, which foretold of a correlation between reducing ice and polar bear numbers, the ice bears have been increasing in population in recent years–and most alarmists have dropped them from their campaign imagery/text...

…not the WWF, however, who spew the following outdated, warm-mongering claptrap on their website:

“Polar bears are the poster child for the impacts of climate change on species, and justifiably so. To date, global warming has been most pronounced in the Arctic, and this trend is projected to continue. There are suggestions that before mid-century we could have a nearly ice-free Arctic in the summer. This increases the urgency with which we must act to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to delay or avoid some of the worst consequences of climate change.

“[The bears’] dependence on sea ice makes them highly vulnerable to a changing climate. Polar bears rely heavily on the sea ice environment for traveling, hunting, mating, resting, and in some areas, maternal dens. In particular, they depend heavily on sea ice-dependent prey, such as ringed and bearded seals. Additionally, their long generation time and low reproductive rate may limit their ability to adapt to changes in the environment.”

Back in reality, the polar bear population is standing at its highest level in six decades.

In books dating back to the 1960s, the number of bears has never been higher, currently standing at approx. 26,000, according to the official data courtesy of IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) and PBSG (Polar Bear Specialist Group):


I don’t know what more is required for the climate alarmists to accept that they’ve been hoodwinked, that what they’re pushing for is not ‘justice for the planet’ but rather ‘destruction of humanity’ via their insistence on crippling energy restrictions and a controlled demolition global food production.

If you believe in ‘global heating,’ ‘climate catastrophe,’ ‘terrifying Terra-Firma broiling’ –or whatever the hell you want to label it– then you are part of a grandiose political scam. You are doing unmeasurable harm to society and to our modern civilization. And although you may think you’re Earth’s savior (because that’s how they get you), remember that “the road to hell is paved with good intentions” and that all the do-gooders in the world are really just troublemakers indiscriminately seeking a purpose.

As the story goes, “kindly let me help you or you’ll drown, said the monkey putting the fish safely up a tree.”

If you aren’t privy to the facts, or worse still, are willfully blind to them, then this is the danger. The virtuous think they know what is best for EVERYBODY, but their belief is based solely on their own narrow viewpoint. This is isn’t virtuousness, this is a destructive rampage, and one orchestrated from on high.

If you believe in AGW –which is just one modern example– and push for extreme planet-reshaping policies then you are nothing more than a destructive sheep, a useful idiot, and you need to stop enforcing what you think –or rather, what you have been led to think– is best on everybody else.

Modern science is an indulgence, largely; rarely is it correct, and rarer still should it be used as a tool to scare the masses into such powerfully dangerous measures.

“Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire.

People should be free to think, permitted to use their own real-world observations to form their own thoughts and opinions. But clearly, this is not the world we live in. Government funded labs with their endless production line of dire climate models and projections should not be required to prove a point as obvious as ‘catastrophic anthropogenic global warming’ claims to be.

CAGW’s impacts should be palpable by now having been around for some four+ decades. Whenever we step foot outside ‘climate change’ should be smacking us in the face hard. We should be wading through the risen oceans; baking in the winter sun.

But of course, we aren’t suffering these fates, and we likely never will. These EOTW prophesies are a mere fabrication, a dark Brothers Grimm Fairy Tale and the newest politicized weapon wielded with the aim of controlling and reshaping the masses into mindless sacks of meat for the powers-that-be to utilize as they see fit (and cast aside once finished with).

History has shown us time and time again that it takes a tumultuous, world-shaking and undeniable truth to awake the masses from their manufactured psychosis. Perhaps this orchestrated societal collapse occurring in conjunction with a cyclical round of global cooling will prove that truth. That will be too late for the majority of people--but thank God the polar bears will be okay!

And to that point: the psychopaths in charge aren’t so much pro-planet, but rather antihuman.

I reject their illogical, treacherous and murderous ramblings — I pick freedom and prosperity, instead.

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34 Thoughts to “140 Frosts Registered In Vale Do Caminhos, Brazil This Year–A New Record; “Off The Scale” Greenland Blocking Suggests Arctic Freeze For Europe/Eastern North America; + Polar Bear Numbers At Highest Level In Six Decades”

  1. Moffin

    Talking about highs moving westward.
    The near recent bush fires in Australia were the culmination of a single high pressure system sitting like a glove over that continent for three years.

    The further anomaly was this high moved in the wrong direction, westward.
    The high got half way to south Africa and then moved back and settled over Australia again. This venturesome excursion took around five days.

    Some people claim to be able to model this stuff.

    1. Jeffrey Johnson

      Oh they can model it, but only after the fact. And when something new unexpectedly happens, they will model that – again, after it happens. Their models with be great at predicting events that already happened.

  2. ieo

    This article is cherry picking data the same way global warming priests are cherry picking data. Greenland ice sheet is indeed very high, but Arctic ice is very low at the moment, perhaps even lower than the lowest one in 2012.

    1. Cap Allon

      Arctic ice is within the normal range, according to the likes of NASA/NOAA and the DMI. Check the data.

      1. ieo

        https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

        Ice sheet is now outside the inter-decile range, in par with the surface covered by ice in 2012, which was the lowest one.

        And from this site, based on the UAH satellite measurements, the temperature was basically flat since 2016. No warming. No cooling. But it is also the highest average temperature since 1979 when the UAH recordings started.
        It may cool – as this solar cycle is weak – but it’s still not proved; we are still guessing.

        1. Dallas Schneider

          Oh, it will cool alright!!!
          Per historical data from Mt Pinatubo 1991 Maximum Cooling
          should occur around 1 Feb 2023 from the Hunga Tonga eruption.
          Since this eruption was many times stronger than M.P. the data record may not apply! No guess here! The global atmosphere will cool!!

          1. Matt Dalby

            Since Hunga Tonga was the first massive submarine volcanic eruption since accurate data first started to be collected planet wide there is no precedent to go by when trying to predict it’s effects.
            Very large eruptions usually result in cooling, but what’s different about Hunga Tonga is the amount of water vapour ejected into the stratosphere. Since water vapour is the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere it’s possible that Hunga Tonga will cause a certain amount of warming. Indeed it’s possible to find a number of papers in scientific journals that predict just this along with some that predict cooling.
            Any cooling would be noticeable first in the Southern Hemisphere, however the S.H. temperature anomaly is currently slightly above average after having been around minus 0.3 for most of the year (according to climate reanalyzer).
            Obviously this doesn’t mean there won’t be cooling, but if there is I think it suggests that Hunga Tonga isn’t the cause.

        2. AZ1971

          Ice sheet is now outside the inter-decile range, in par with the surface covered by ice in 2012, which was the lowest one.

          You’re trying to compare the annual low of Sept 2012 to Nov 2022?

          You’re kidding, right? Comparing two different months, two different periods of ice growth vs. ice recession is indeed the epitome of propaganda, not even cherry picking data. You may as well compare apples to celery to proselytize about sugar content in fruit.

          If you look at the UAH LT data since 2016 and see no warming (despite the MSM unrelentingly argues as “hottest year evah!”) then doesn’t that speak to the effects of the last super El Niño and not the actual CO2 molecule count since we’ve added several dozen billion tons of it to the atmosphere in that time period?

          1. ieo

            Try to read and understand before answering. And look at what the graph shows for ‘now’ November 27 comparing to November 27 in 2012.

            In UAH I seen no warming, and no cooling; whatever data sets you mention, they are irrelevant if the average temperature doesn’t change.

            The text above is the 5th comment, the previous identical 4 were deleted.
            For the moderator. It’s amusing.
            You act exactly like MSM, which is censoring whatever they dislike, yet you complain almost each day about their behavior. Some are scaremongering and monetizing global warming. Some are scaremongering and monetizing global cooling. Either way, it’s a scam.
            It’s a pity, this site had some good information in the past. Now, 80% is scaremongering.
            In time, people will realize it.

        3. CNA

          Water takes longer to cool. SST will reduce with time and the ice will return with a vengeance

    2. Dallas Schneider

      So which d*** cherry picking priests are right?
      First, is the data there, missing or correct?
      IF, and it’s a big if, the data is not faked, censored (as occurred with Hunga Tonga, just ask the next person you see if they know Hunga Tonga. I am now 5 out of 5 that have not even heard of it) or manipulated as occurred with the now infamous M.M. Hockey Stick then one just might weigh the amount of correct data to see which prevails.
      Or, How about we go to court over it, and let a qualified judge decide?
      The Hockey Stick loses!!!
      https://climatechangedispatch.com/tim-ball-defeats-michael-mann-lawsuit/

      “The Supreme Court of British Columbia has dismissed Dr. Michael Mann’s defamation lawsuit against skeptical Canadian climatologist Dr. Tim Ball. Full legal costs were awarded to Dr. Ball, the defendant in the case.
      The Canadian court issued its final ruling in favor of the Dismissal motion that was filed May 2019 by Dr. Tim Ball’s libel lawyers.
      Mann’s “hockey stick” graph, first published in 1998, was featured prominently in the U.N. IPCC 2001 climate report.
      The graph showed a spike in global average temperature in the 20th Century after about 500 years of stability. Skeptics have long claimed Mann’s graph was fraudulent.”

      See here what the two were fighting over in graphic form: https://www.reddit.com/r/climateskeptics/comments/dn1yny/mann_vs_ball_the_battle_of_the_graphs/

      Justice will prevail!!
      Dallas

  3. Mystic’s Mystic

    The U.N’s climate change summit held in Egypt. There must be a reason these scam arrest chose Egypt? Didn’t want to end up with snow on their faces? The way this report from CAP looks, I don’t think they can avoid it now.
    🥶

  4. John Vandervalk

    Thanks for the consistent articles. I’m flying out to Washington State this weekend, they are predicting days of coastal snow which is not very normal. Usually just cold depressing rain. We have another Arctic front rolling in tonight here in Colorado. Last Friday we shattered the lowest high temp ever recorded in Colorado Springs. Media flat out ignored it.

  5. John Galts offspring.

    Thanks, Cap: Using your info, I have done my best to get ready for winter, more wood, use gas only for cooking, not heating, and figuring out how to grow food indoors with and without grow lights. Passing your website on to others. BTW there is a group here in North Carolina that is pushing our Governor to go “green” stop fracking, and their ads keep coming up on a lot of things on You tube etc. Hypnotized fools, they. Our weather here is TOO mild, usually I am building a fire in the stove. Only built a few so far, but I look at the GFS and other charts and we will get hit in a while. Thanks.

  6. Based on an extra big crop of acorns in my backyard, we can expect an extra cold winter here in North Carolina.

  7. Dallas Schneider

    “Strong negative NOA anomalies are rare, with the last seen in 2010 (I recall the associated record-breaking winter in Europe that season); but such a strong anomaly, as that which we’re seeing this year, is believed to be unprecedented.”

    It was 2009 that year two periods of 30+ days of no sunspots occurred. This was a solar minimum year. Jan 2010 it was so cold in South Florida a Million fish were killed in the Everglades. I fought the battle of keeping the roof top solar pool heating rubber pads from freezing and lost the battle. They developed pin holes spraying water that could not be repaired. They were replaced by selling a 1 oz gold coin to buy a pool electric heat pump same value. I installed it myself. It was 11 years later at next solar minimum Feb 2021 over 700 Texans frozen to death!! Next on cycle minimum 2032. The Negative NAO is certainly unprecedented as it seems to be off cycle from the sunspots.

    That being said, I have a question. Why is there a “negative pressure”?
    I thought cold air is heavier than warm air, as warm air is less dense.
    Doesn’t the barometer pressure normally go up after a cold front passes through dropping it’s load of water? Let’s not get complicated here, just a reason for the cold negative pressure is asked for.

    Thanks, Dallas

  8. Martin

    In Yakutia, the first -50°C

    The Siberian anticyclone expands its holdings. Its influence is felt not only in Siberia, but also in most of the European territory of Russia and even in western Yakutia. The air temperature was below the climatic norm by 10-12 degrees.
    And the frosts were even very strong for the cold pole. On November 27, in Oymyakon, the air cooled to -49.9 degrees. According to automatic weather station, down to -50.6 degrees. But this value is not a record, the record took place in 1960, when the air cooled to -56.9 degrees.
    http://www.hmn.ru/index.php?index=1&ts=221128133155
    https://www.gismeteo.ru/news/weather/v-rossii-udarili-50-gradusnye-morozy/

    Today, the north of Xinjiang has experienced the strongest cold wave isince 1987. Qinghe National Weather Station has the lowest temperature of – 42.1C. The lowest temperature of AWS in Tuerhong is – 48.6C, close to the lowest record in November in China!(- 50.7C)
    https://twitter.com/yangyubin1998/status/1597195940065988609?s=20&t=fJtSU6Ofcgz086G62XLUbQ
    -Nothing new, the natural and healthy winter, but some 8.. to 12 degrees below the norm.
    Declining maximum temperatures…more snow…more clouds = Not the hottest year ever. Global warming is dead!

  9. Dallas Schneider

    Thanks for this information and answer to my question.
    So what does an anticyclone have to do with it?
    If a cyclone is like a hurricane with the lowest barometric pressure in the eye in the Northern Hemisphere wouldn’t an anticyclone have a higher pressure in the center.
    I’m still confused. What is a anticyclone doing in the Northern Hemisphere?
    Dallas

  10. Dallas Schneider

    Ok, I started reading the article again. I think I have to go back to the definition of NAO! From the gov with a nice long term chart:
    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/nao/

    “The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low. The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions.”

    So it is a ratio, a comparison of pressures, numerical symbol!
    Reworded to phrase the negative “The negative phase of the NAO reflects above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic”. This would co-incide with cold air being heavier with resulting higher pressure.
    It just depends on which side of the teeter-totter you are sitting on!

    Dallas

  11. Dallas Schneider

    anticyclone
    ăn″tē-sī′klōn″, ăn″tī-
    noun
    An extensive system of winds spiraling outward from a high-pressure center, circling clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
    A meteorological phenomenon presenting some features which are the opposites of those of a cyclone.
    A movement of the atmosphere opposite in character, as regards direction of the wind and distribution of barometric pressure, to that of a cyclone.

    So an anticyclone by definition does have high pressure in it’s center.
    And it is on time, as it moves clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere…lol
    Dallas

  12. Dallas Schneider

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml

    Bottom graph, the Jan 2010 NAO just off the chart also, or at least touching it!
    Feb 2021 not on that chart page!

    Please excuse me if I seem stuck on Jan 2010. But I was out in the freezing cold after dark in SW Florida repairing a broken pool pump pipe hoping the fiber glass would set up in the cold. It did and it did hold, until replaced when I put the new pool heat pump in place!

    Cap, I think you are on to something here!!

    Dallas

    1. Matt Dalby

      It’s not suprising that you’re “stuck” on 2010. For a lot of people it’s the coldest year they can remember. Here in the U.K. it was the coldest December on record, although temperatures during some of the winters in the late 1970’s or early 1980’s may occaisionaly have been lower (although I was alive during this winters I’m not old enough to properly remember them).
      What was unusual about 2010 was how ling lasting the cold was. In England daytime highs below freezing are relatively uncommon, but in December 2010 in some parts of the country there were only 4 or 5 days in the whole month when the temperature got above freezing.
      Obviously it’s far too early to say how long the upcoming freeze will last, but once strong high pressure systems become established they can persist for weeks.

      1. Chris Norman

        2010, a solar minimum.

  13. Dallas Schneider

    Ok, I am trying to stop on this NAO item, but God Help me it is difficult!!!

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao_ts.shtml
    Government site with graphs ENDING Oct 2020, just before the
    Big Texas Freeze!!!

    Seems they have already had to extend the graph back then as it only goes to
    Minus 3—!!!!!!!!! Our graph in the article goes to
    Minus 5—!!!!! Please correct me if I am wrong as I can hardly believe my eyes!!!

    Thank you, Dallas

  14. TW

    What do you think Southern UK winter will be like Cap? Being a small island the maritime climate here means Euro forecasts don’t often apply.

  15. Michael Peinsipp

    Yep…KY will be like the Blizzard on 1978 and adding the temps of the 1993 KY Ice Storm (-24°F ambient) and we will be living coolly!!!

  16. AZ1971

    I wonder if the idiots at the IUCN who are lamenting the demise of polar bears forget that if there IS no summer sea ice, seals will still need something on which to rest, which means they’ll have to come ashore where the polar bears are and will have their pick of the fattest, juiciest, slowest specimens.

  17. Gatrillion

    Thanks Cap for discontinuing the propaganda term elites (a positive term for them). I’ve been monitoring satellite data from Albania and I can say, snow cover is over a month early this year, like related to the Tonga volcano event.

    I have also been in touch with a geologist team because I noticed from satellite data and facebook photos that there were possible small glaciers in the south of the country, completely uncharted. I just heard back from the team, they identified two small glacierets, making these two the southern most in Europe. For now these will be the southern most in Europe, I expect the Sierra Nevada former glacier to resurrect within the coming years.

    These glaciers are at a extreme low elevation btw, 1,600 meters at 40 degree longitude. They have survived the fake global warming, and the coconut forests have not taken over yet.

  18. Flame Schon

    thank you for sanity

  19. Leonardo

    Thanks Cap ,
    Keep up the good work.
    2020/2021 in Eastern Australia was a year without a summer , and it is looking like the same again after the coldest , cloudiest and wettest winter we have seen since 2010.
    Yet still the alarmists deny the obvious link between solar cycles and the weather/climate.

  20. Al

    Worst spring cold and wet ever experienced in Victoria Australia.
    Plants stunted and destroyed, folks sick of cold or cool wet weather.
    Idiotic commentators believing the climate change/warming BS.
    Arguing over size of ice sheets and basically clueless to the deceptions.
    Thanks Cap for your hard work!

  21. john

    Woollen clothes, heavy jackets and leather boots seem to be the go. For fuel, wood, charcoal . For crops,, silver beat, Chinese greens, and beans.

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