Yesterday Was America’s Snowiest Nov 16 On Record; “Extraordinary” And “Paralyzing” Lake Effect Snow Set To Pound The Northeast; Energy Crisis Update; + Siberia Plunges To -47.8C (-54F)

Cap Allon

Yesterday Was America’s Snowiest Nov 16 On Record

A record for snow extent in the contiguous U.S. was broken yesterday (Wed, Nov 16). The dataset only extends back 2-decades, but still, in that time the United States has never logged a snowier November 16.

The National Snow Analysis from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center shows that a whopping 41.1% of the CONUS had snow on the ground Wednesday morning, besting the previous record of 37% set in 2014.

For reference, the average Nov 16 snow extent for the 20-year period is 14.8% (which includes the 41.1% this year).


Looking at this official dataset –and discarding AGW Party delusions of ever-increasing temperatures = ever-decreasing snow– snowfall extent has been increasing over the past 20 years: For the first 10 years (that’s 2003-2012), the United State’s average snow extent on Nov 16 was 12.2%, but for the last 10 years (that’s 2013-2022) the average has climbed to 16.3%.

Facts don’t lie; but they do hurt agendas.


“Extraordinary” And “Paralyzing” Lake Effect Snow Set To Pound The Northeast

Yet more snow is on course to bury portions of the North American continent starting today, Thursday.

Western New York, for example, which gets more snow than almost any other corner of the U.S., is about to get pummeled by a winter storm “that is extraordinary — even by the region’s own standards,” reports bloomberg.com.

Cold air sweeping across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario is forecast to drop 3 feet of snow near Buffalo, with some isolated spots expecting more that 4 feet — from late Wednesday to Sunday, reads a recent NSW warning.

Such staggering totals would surpass the current three-day record in Buffalo — the 3.2 feet set during the November of 2000.; while snow records in Lansing (2.0″ set in 1955); Charlotte (3.0″ from 2014) and Jackson (1.1″ set in 1989) are just another three on course to be “absolutely crushed,” according to fox47news.com.

“This will be the start of a prolonged lake-effect snow event which will likely include paralyzing snowfall for the Buffalo and Watertown areas late this week through the weekend,” the NWS office in Buffalo wrote Wednesday.

But Buffalo isn’t alone, of course; the entire Great Lakes will experience record-challenging snow in the next few days. The NWS has warned that travel could be “near-impossible” starting Thursday, and insists that drivers should pack a flashlight, food and water in their vehicles in case they get stranded. The snow is also expected to topple power lines, leading to outages. Widespread road closures are also a given, snarling transportation across the Northeast.

And looking further ahead, even larger accumulations are forecast next weekend:

GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Nov 17 – Dec 3 [tropicaltidbits.com].


Western and Central regions won’t be spared this continent-wide invasion of early-season polar cold.

Low temperature records and historic snowfall benchmarks are already being felled there, too — with much more to come, threatening to disrupt Thanksgiving (Nov 24), and beyond:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Nov 16 – Nov 21 [tropicaltidbits.com].
GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Nov 17 – Dec 3 [tropicaltidbits.com].


All this snow is, as you’d expect, aiding the Northern Hemisphere’s snow mass.

According to Finnish Meteorological data (shown below), ‘Total Snow Mass for the NH’ is, as of Nov 15 –the latest datapoint– progressing above both the 1982-2012 mean and the standard deviation–where it has been all season:

[FMI]


Energy Crisis Update

The cold conditions and outlook are pushing wholesale energy prices higher.


NatGas

December nat-gas futures posted gains on Wednesday as forecasts for below-average temperatures toward the end of the month sparked short-covering.


Diesel

Prices for diesel fuel have soared by ~50% this year to $5.35/gallon, a record premium over gasoline and crude oil.

The spread between diesel and gasoline has widened to an all-time high of $1.61/gallon from $0.23 difference a year ago, bolstered by the news that the U.S. has just 25 days of diesel in reserve, the lowest since 2008.

High prices are hitting businesses from mining and manufacturers to distributors and retailers, who are paying through the nose, record sums, to transport goods; meanwhile, refiners are reaping record profits, with shares of Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Exxon Mobil, for example, having surged 80+% year-to-date.

U.S. diesel inventories have trended down since the summer of 2020, and are now 10% below their previous five-year low, 40% below in the northeast. East Coast inventories of diesel and heating oil are currently at 25M barrels. Macquarie strategist, Vikas Dwivedi, points out an average winter depletes reserves by about 20M barrels, but an especially cold winter “could easily draw down 25 million, and that’s all you’ve got.”


Biofuels

Total US weekly ethanol production and stockpiles both declined in the week ending Nov 11, landing below market expectations.

Ethanol production decreased week-on-week by 40,000 barrels, coming in well-below analyst predictions. The reduction was largely due to a lower output in the Midwest — home to the majority of the country’s capacity.

Ethanol stockpiles substantially dropped by 894,000 barrels to 21.3 million barrels. The stockpile decrease also blind-sided analysts, who had polled for a week-on-week inventory rise of 126,000 barrels.


European Woes

Flex LNG Ltd. expects the market for liquefied natural gas vessels to remain tight and charter rates to stay high for years to come, especially if Europe faces chilly winters. CEO Øystein Kalleklev believes Europe will struggle as it tries to refill storage without Russian pipeline gas.

Latest weather forecasts are calling for fierce Arctic Outbreaks across both Asia and Europe. This will increase natural gas demand, which, in turn, is expected to see European buyers willing to pay massive premiums for energy, risking further economic instability across the continent.

Referring to the rare a triple-dip La Nina we’re currently experiencing, Kalleklev said: “Usually that means a cold snap in Asia and theoretically in Europe,” and with the continent only having about 7-weeks of winter demand in the tanks, if La Nina does indeed bring big chills to Asia and Europe, major Asian LNG buyers could reserve their cargoes for domestic use only, meaning Europe’s storage will be consumed at an accelerated rate without the ability to top it back up.


Siberia Plunges To -47.8C (-54F)

This week has brought Siberia its coldest temperatures of the winter season so far –the coldest in the Northern Hemisphere, in fact– with the punishing chill extending anomalously-far south to portions of the Middle East, including Northern Iraq’s mountains.

Siberia sank to -47.5C (-53.5F) at Segen-Kyuel on Nov 15, but then surpassed with a low of -47.8C (-54F) on Nov 16.

AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls explained that the slow-moving trough in the Caspian Sea allowed brutally-frigid air to enter Russia, impacting northern Iran and Iraq, too, with heavy snow reported on and around Mount Gara.



The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

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