Study: India’s ‘Cold Waves’ Have Increased Over The Past Decade; Summer Snow Clips Australia; + Arctic Outbreaks For Asia, Europe And North America–With All-Time Record Cold Forecast Across The Northeast

Study: India’s ‘Cold Waves’ Have Increased Over The Past Decade

Extreme cold waves are increasing across India “despite global warming”, a new IITM study has indicated.

The analysis, led by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) scientists Raju Mandal and Susmitha Joseph, took into account the number of cold wave events over the past seven decades, from 1951-2022. The researchers discovered that more cold wave days are occurring in recent decades than in previous ones.

Note: India declares a ‘cold wave’ when the temperature reaches 10C (50F)-or-lower, or is 4.5C below a locale’s average.

“In the recent decade, more cold wave days have been observed across the central and eastern parts,” said Mandal: “In Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and also some areas of northwest India such as Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi.”

According to the research, central and eastern India has seen the average number of cold waves increase by more than five days per decade, and by over 15 days per decade in some places. On average, these regions used to record 2-to-5 cold wave days per 10 years during most decades from 1951-2011, but this rose to nearly 5-15 days in the last decade (ending 2021).

Even in built-up areas, where the UHI effect will be a factor, the data also showed that cold waves days in Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi have increased to 5-10 per decade during the last 20-year period vs the average of 2-5 in the previous decades.

Mandal: “We wanted to understand through the study if there can be a reduction in cold wave events amidst a global warming scenario. We, however, found that occurrences of cold wave events have continued even under the general warming scenarios.”

Summer Snow Clips Australia

Australia is cooling, the data are clear on that.

Another summer cold front is sweeping southern and eastern states to close the week, with temperatures tumbling to their lowest February levels in decades, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data.

Widespread frosts have swept parts Victoria and New South Wales, with near sea-level frosts reported in Tasmania; while summer snow has even clipped the higher elevations.

Furthermore, the temperature data for January is in, and show it was another well-below average month.

According to the BoM, Jan 2023 in Australia had a temperature anomaly of -0.65C below the 1991-2020 norm. Even more impressively, last month finished below the old 1961-1990 period (a cold era) by 0.02C.

Australia continues to cool:

Arctic Outbreaks For Asia, Europe And North America–With All-Time Record Cold Forecast Across The Northeast

Asia

As previously documented, Asia has been holding exceptionally cold over the past few months with all-time low temperature records falling across many nations. And looking ahead, the chill of winter isn’t done with the continent yet, particularly across Western and Eastern parts.

In January, a myriad of all-time low temperature records fell, from Pakistan to Japan–with the latter also dealing with historic volumes of accumulating snow which at times proved deadly.

The bodies of two men caught in an avalanche on Sunday have been found in Nagano Prefecture. Local police said they believed the men were off-piste skiing separately from the rest of their 5-strong group when the avalanche hit. The three other skiers were able to safely make it down the mountain.

Warnings for snow and avalanches remain in place across Japan, after last week’s polar plunge buried swathes of the country under feet upon feet of record-busting powder.

It's very cold in East Asia, with parts of China having their lowest min temps on record yesterday. This SNPP VIIRS cloud phase image from today shows the cold air crossing the Sea of Japan, reaching Japan. There is even snow falling in the area of Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/BiFgcZZ0ag

— EUMETSAT Users (@eumetsat_users) January 24, 2023

The temperature data for January is in.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Jan 2023 across Japan finished -0.03C below the the multidecadal norm.

It is, then, somewhat perplexing to read that last month saw high-temperature records outstrip low-temperature records by almost 3-1 (300 heat records vs 100+ cold records). This again, for me, demonstrates the issue with reckless thermometer station coverage and the high-end extremes that they can reach due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect.

Of those 300 heat records I’m willing to bet a great many were 1) sited in cities/at airports, and 2) were only ‘narrowly’ or ‘briefly’ pipped–likely at night when the UHI effect is more prominent. How else can a nation register a BELOW-average monthly anomaly yet have its individual records tip 3-1 to heat?

I suppose it is possible that one region could hold exceptionally cold and drag down the average for the country overall, but this wasn’t the case with Japan last month: JMA data show a similar temp range across the country (of between -1.5C and +0.7C).

The never-ending headache of combating/unraveling government agency manipulation and obfuscation.

Europe

Conditions are conspiring to deliver Europe it’s first Arctic Outbreak proper since mid-December.

GFS runs see those ‘blues’ and ‘purples’ extending from Norway to North Africa, from Ireland to Turkey:

With impressive snow totals to boot:

The models are unsure of the ferocity and exact timing of this outbreak, but it’s looking highly disruptive — stay tuned for updates.

North America

North America’s big freeze is forecast to intensify and deliver all-time record-breaking cold to the likes of the Great Lakes and the Northeast.

Truly brutal, likely historic Arctic-cold is battering the Northeast this Friday morning, with conditions set to worsen over the weekend as the accompanying winds intensify.

Temperatures will continue plunging all day Friday, down into the single digits in Boston by evening, and below zero in northern New England.

Wind chills warnings are in effect across New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island–to name just seven states; with -12F expected by Saturday morning in New York City, -35F in Boston, and as low as -62F in northern Maine, which could prove deadly for anyone caught outside for extended periods.

Frostbite can occur on exposed skin in 10 minutes or less.

“Wind chills into the minus 50s for northern parts of this region will be the coldest felt in decades,” said the NWS office in Caribou, adding in their most-recent update, “Most stations are forecast to see their lowest (temps) ever recorded”.

While forecasters at Mt. Washington Observatory in New Hampshire are warning that they may also set a new all-time record low temperature during this event: Winds could gust to 140 mph at the summit, with the ‘feels-like’ possibly plunging to -100F.

Power outages are already compounding the misery for many, with more likely as the cold (and snowfall) intensifies. Currently, as of early Friday morning, 250,000 are without power in Texas alone, with 60,000 out in neighboring Arkansas.

The snow will be continue to be equally impressive, with blizzard warnings issued for the likes of northern Maine due to blowing snow on Friday and Saturday, as winds gusting to 40 mph create “ground blizzard” conditions.

Eyeing further south, drifting snow has even impacted stretches of the U.S.-Mexico border this week, as the fifth winter storm of the season batters northwestern Mexico, closing highways and schools across the state of Baja California–for example.

The Centinela-La Rumorosa highway, the main route along the U.S. border, was closed in both directions this week due to heavy, blowing snow, which led to the Red Cross setting up a temporary shelter to provide assistance to “those in trouble”.

And finally, looking further ahead, the GFS continues to hint at another Arctic Outbreak due mid-month:

Enjoy your weekend.