Very Cold In Northern Iran and Southern Africa; South America’s ‘Swings Between Extremes’; + China Breaks More Than 20 *Monthly* Low Temperature Records

Very Cold In Northern Iran…

Very cold conditions have been prevailing over the Northern Iranian Highlands of late.

The village of Sabz, for example, located in East Azerbaijan Province, logged a low of just 2.3C (36.1F) over the weekend — a reading not too far off the national August record low.

…and Southern Africa

Similarly in South Africa–a bit of a trip, granted–the town of Graaff Reinet (32S) recently suffered 3 straight nights of frosts, followed a night of tropical warmth (Tmin of +20.3C/68.5F), and then another plunge to -4C (24.8F) — exceptional ‘swings between extremes’…

South America’s ‘Swings Between Extremes’

While Argentina has been holding persistently cold in recent months, many of South America’s more central and northern locales have been dealing with regular temperature ‘flip-floppings’ — that is to say, swings from record cold to record heat and record heat to record cold, over and over again — a disastrous setup for crop production, if nothing else.

The latest extreme temperature ‘flip’ occurred over the weekend.

Below are the contrasting temperatures for a handful of southern Brazilian towns (courtesy of @metsul on Twitter). On the left are the 3pm readings on Saturday, Aug 27, and on the right are the 3pm readings just 24-hours later, on Sunday, Aug 28:

This cool down has intensified into Monday, too, as picked up by the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, an agency that is also picking up on a fiercely cold Antarctica (-4.6C below the multidecadal norm) and also an overall cool planet (holding just +0.1C above the same historical 1979-2000 base):

Looking ahead, another brief yet intense spell of heat will see 40C (104F) reached in Paraguay (on Sept 1) before the mercury completely collapses again shortly thereafter:

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Aug 28 – Sept 4 []

Such ‘swings between extremes’ are a common feature during times of low solar activity. With less energy entering the jet streams they revert from their standard stable ‘ZONAL’ flow to more of a weak and wavy ‘MERIDIONAL’ one.

This, for one, can result in abnormal temperature anomalies on both ends of the scale, a factor solely dependent on which ‘side’ of the jet stream you’re on (NH: ‘above’ the jet will see you subject to Arctic cold; ‘below’ will deliver you Tropical warmth).

Western Europe has been ‘below’ the JS for long stretches of this summer which, as we would expect, has seen the region subject to hot ‘African Plumes’ riding anomalously-far north. My big worry is that if the counter plays out this winter–if another ‘climatic equilibrium’ occurs–then Europe–in its self-inflicted energy crisis–will be burning whatever the hell it can get its hands on to stave off equally long stretches of descending polar cold.

Warmth is good, life can deal with the heat; it’s the cold that causes suffering. Hence this inconvenient truth: Tropical forests cover less than 12% of all land, yet they contain a majority of plant and animal species on earth; whereas the Arctic covers 10% of the planet’s land area, but contains only 600 plant species and only 100 species of birds, no reptiles or amphibians, and only 20 mammals.

The warmer the better–to an extent (and to quite a high threshold); also, the more atmospheric CO2 the better–levels have been 4000+ppm in the past during epochs when life exploded, no less, such as the Cambrian and also the wider Paleozoic era.

Carbon is the build block of life, we should celebrate higher concentrations of the stuff — this shouldn’t be contentious.

China Breaks More Than 20 *Monthly* Low Temperature Records

The ‘swings between extremes’ we spoke of above aren’t just confined to South Africa and South America, they’re occurring in China, too–as well as across the wider Asian continent.

Over the weekend, the intense record-breaking heat suffered in the Chinese provinces of Fujian, Sichuan and Chongqing was more than ‘balanced out’ by the exceptional record-breaking cold featured in northern parts of the country.

More than 20 stations in the provinces of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei broke their *monthly* low temperature records on Saturday, August 27, many of which (see list below) had stood since the 1970s–another period of relatively low solar activity.

20x of Northern China’s busted August lows.

These unprecedented August chills are just the start, too, as numerous additional blobs of ‘blues’ and ‘purples’ amass in Siberia and Far East Russia readying to descend and dominate more southerly reaches of the continent (see GFS below), readying to ‘flip’ central and southern China from the record heat it has bee enduring this summer to potentially unprecedented early-season chills.

Also note that it’s now Eastern Europe’s turn to swing to heat after suffering what has, for the most part, been a very cool summer. However, note that that burst of ‘red’ is brief, to be almost immediately replaced by yet more anomalous polar ‘blues’.

GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Aug 28 – Sept 5 []

This Northern Hemisphere winter is shaping up to be a doozy (more on that tomorrow) and will coincide with a crippling energy shortage. The outlook is grim, particularly for the poorest–which given the recent implosion in living stands is nigh-everyone.

Prepare accordingly.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre)

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