[A few of the] Scientists who warn of a coming Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age

[Originally published over at electroverse.net on Sept 10, 2020]

There are many reputable scientists out there combating the orchestrated consensus that Earth is heating into oblivion due to trace CO2 — they just don’t receive any airtime, and so the masses are never privy to their alternative lines of research and thinking.

The Sun’s historically low activity during cycle 24 took the majority of researchers and solar physicists by complete surprise, particularly with regards to its very long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 (more than two years in 2008–2010) in which there was a lack of any activity at all.

As discussed by Simon J. Shepherd et al. in their 2014 paper PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM SOLAR BACKGROUND MAGNETIC FIELD VARIATIONS IN CYCLES 21-23: “this minimum solar activity was evident not only in the lack of sunspots but also in solar magnetic field variations (de Toma et al. 2010a2010b), modulation of cosmic rays (McDonald et al. 2010), and in interplanetary coronal mass ejections (Barnard et al. 2011).”

This prolonged minimum in cycle 24 was all the more surprising because the previous five cycles had been extremely active and so sunspot-productive that they were designated as a Grand Solar MAXIMUM (Solanki et al. 2004; Usoskin 2008; Usoskin et al. 2008; Solanki & Krivova 2011).

“In cycle 24, the Grand Maximum was followed by much lower solar activity, prompting some authors to suggest that the Sun is on its way toward a Maunder Minimum of activity (Lockwood et al. 2011),” writes Shepherd. “This reduced appearance of sunspots in the current cycle 24 was not anticipated by many researchers before the cycle began but has since given birth to a slew of papers suggesting we are indeed now headed into the next Grand Solar MINIMUM.”

Simon J. Shepherd et al. concluded in 2014, with a sufficient degree of confidence, that the solar activity in cycles 24–26 will be systematically decreasing: “we predict a noticeable decrease of the average sunspot numbers in cycle 25 to ≈80% of that in cycle 24 and a decrease in cycle 26 to ≈40%”:

Modulus summary principal component (solid curve) for cycles 21–23 and predicted for cycles 24–26.

In 2010, Professor Nils-Axel Mörner’s paper Solar Minima, Earth’s rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future: The North Atlantic–European case suggests that past Solar Minima were all linked to a general speeding up of the Earth’s rate of rotation — an interesting take.

Mörner writes: “This affected the surface currents and southward penetration of Arctic water in the North Atlantic causing “Little Ice Ages” over northwestern Europe. At around 2040–2050 we will be in a new major Solar Minimum. It is to be expected that we will then have a new “Little Ice Age” over the Arctic and NW Europe. The mechanism proposed for the linkage of Solar activity with Earth’s rotation is the interaction of Solar Wind with the Earth’s magnetosphere; the decrease in Solar Wind at sunspot minima weakens the interaction with the magnetosphere that allows the Earth to speed up, and the increase in Solar Wind at sunspot maxima strengthens the interaction with the magnetosphere that slows down the spinning of the Earth.”

Eminent Russian space scientist, Habibullo Abdussamatov (Dr. Sc. – Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory) wrote Optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant in 2007, and his forecasts –to date– have proved accurate.

“We propose a new technique for the optimal prediction of the peak of the next 11-year activity cycle prior to the cycle beginning and of the peaks of several succeeding cycles on the basis of long-term variations in the solar radius or solar constant,” reads the opening lines of the paper’s Abstract.

Using this new technique, Abdussamatov predicted (back in 2007) that “the peak of the succeeding cycle 24 is expected to have the height W max = 70 ± 10 (in units of relative sunspot number)”–which turned out to be correct–“and the subsequent cycles 25 and 26 … will have still lower peaks with the heights W max = 50 ± 15 and W max = 35 ± 20″–this forecast would take us below Dalton Minimum levels.

“The Sun defines the climate, not carbon dioxide,” says Abdussamatov.

“The so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming,” warns Abdussamatov.

“We should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming” he continues. “Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth.”

Desperate scenes during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715).

UPDATE (Aug, 2022):

And regardless of what the MSM is force-feeding the masses, or what the ‘official’ government data sets reveal–with their cherry-picking, UHI-ignoring biases–the global average temperature is beginning to fall, currently down some 0.35C since 2016, according to the satellites.

[Dr. Roy Spencer]

As Dr. Patrick Moore (co-founder of Greenpeace) said in his speech at the Water, Oceans and Wildlife Subcommittee hearing in 2019: “I’ve been watching this prediction of the Grand Solar Minimum for some time now, and now it’s coming to pass and so I’m willing to say that yes, it appears as though the Grand Solar Minimum is occurring and will continue to occur for some time, and will result in a cooling of the climate, which we see just in the last couple of years beginning to set in.”

Moore continued: “Indeed in the Arctic, the ice is more prevalent now than it has been in many years, at least fourteen. And so the trend is going in the opposite direction to the prediction of ever-increasing warmth and loss of ice. It’s long been stated that the sun is the main controller of the earth’s climate,” he concluded.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.

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