New Study: Climate Models Got It Wrong, Eastern Pacific Ocean Is Cooling, La Niña Winters Could Keep On Coming
Earth’s climate system is unfathomably complex. Only a small percentage of the variables have been factored into the UN-funded models. A machine is only as good as the person that built it.
A new research paper has found ‘real world’ temperature differences in the Eastern Pacific Ocean that vary wildly from what the climate models say should be happening.
The study also suggests that La Niñas –the colder counterpart of El Niños– could keep on coming, adding to the climatic woes that the phenomenon delivers, which is to say harsher winters for much of the Northern Hemisphere, and heavy precipitation for the likes of Australia.
The global warming hypothesis favors El Niños, it always has.
The models decreed that El Niño’s would be the dominate ENSO pattern moving forward, correlating with rising global temperatures; the cold, deep ocean waters off South America were expected to rise to the surface, meet milder air and heat faster than the warmer ocean off Asia; this, in turn, would then decrease the temperature difference across the tropical Pacific and lighten the surface winds blowing toward Indonesia — aka, a El Niño setup.
Historical climate records confirm that during prior warm spells, Earth’s climate was more El Niño-like.
In recent years, however, La Niñas have been the dominant setup. In fact, the Northern Hemisphere is about to endure its third consecutive La Niña winter, something that has only occurred four times since 1900, and only twice since 1950.
So what’s going on? Is Earth now cooling?
The recent study, ‘Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large-Scale Patterns of Recent Sea-Surface Temperature and Sea-Level Pressure Change’, looked at temperatures at the surface of the ocean recorded by ships and buoys from 1979 to 2020.
It was discovered that the Pacific Ocean off South America had actually cooled over that time, along with ocean regions farther south, too. This cannot be explained by the climate models. To put it delicately, big pieces of the puzzle are missing.
The upshot of this ‘unexpected’ reality is that the temperature difference between the eastern and western Pacific has grown, instead of shrunk as was prophesied; the surface winds blowing toward Indonesia have strengthened, not weakened; and residents of the NH are enduring their third consecutive La Niña winter, instead of its warmer counterpart, El Niño.
The climate models –that our ‘betters’ base their world-reshaping policy decisions on– have gotten it entirely backwards.
The researchers openly admit that they don’t know why this pattern is happening. Lead author Robert Wills, a UW research scientist in atmospheric sciences, said his team are now exploring possible links to the Antarctic ocean, which is also cooling.
“There’s something about the regional variation, the spatial pattern of warming in the tropical oceans, that is off,” said Wills, of the models. “If it turns out to be natural long-term cycles, maybe we can expect it to switch in the next five to ten years, but if it is a long-term trend due to some processes that are not well represented in the climate models, then it would be longer. Some mechanisms have a switch that would happen over the next few decades, but others could be a century or longer,” he added.
Let that sink in…
Also note that the study only ran to 2020, so didn’t have the data for the two most-recent La Nina winters where a further intensification of the cooling has been noted.
Honest climate scientists admit that there are serious issues with the models, the biggest being ‘clouds’ — they simply haven’t properly accounted for them/don’t understand them.
“All models are wrong, but some models are useful,” so the quote goes. Well, thus far, climate models are seemingly only useful for pushing warped, antihuman, globalist agendas — they have provenly failed in every other regard.
14 Thoughts to “New Study: Climate Models Got It Wrong, Eastern Pacific Ocean Is Cooling, La Niña Winters Could Keep On Coming”
I proposed the mechanism back in 2015:
As an extension of that proposition I predicted a change from El Nino dominance to La Nina dominance and it has come to pass.
More wavy jets lead to a cloudier world with a higher albedo so that less energy gets into the oceans and La Nina becomes dominant.
The decrease of intense El Nino’s since the 1990’s is clear from NOAA’s data, despite the fact that, oddly enough, they seem to try to pass the idea that El Nino’s are becoming more frequent during the XXI century. But the La Nina’s despite the increased frequency are also becoming less intense, probably indicating increasing perturbation of the Earth’s climate system to random effects, increasing chaoticity.
The connection with Ozone though is not clear in my mind, the famous Ozone Hole over Antarctica is *still there*, basically non affected by any changes in solar activity for the entire XXI century,
I believe the Sun *directly* influences the decadal cycles of the Pacific but I have never seen a detailed and clear description of how this happens, and it is happening again as it happened 100 years ago.
Because of this important and almost “automatic”, influence of solar radiation (the strong photons, high UV and above, but also charged particles in connection with the fine tuning of the Magnetosphere, which has importantly changed since 1994) over the Pacific ocean I tend to think that the Sun is *by far* the greater driver of Earth’s climate and the fact that the atmosphere is still *not cooling*, despite the relatively low cycle#24, is due to solar radiations still not being low enough: the minimum of 2008-2009 was lower and more stable than the one around 2020, but it didn’t last long enough to produce important cooling,
I believe we don’t understand Earth’s climate because we are refusing to accept the fact that we don’t understand the Sun very well either. Scientifically speaking, we need a solid theory about Ice Ages, and we don’t have any.
Changes in the relative frequency of El Nino and La Nina events are tied to changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO.
When the PDO is positive as it was from circa 1975-2000 El Nino’s dominate which lead to global temperatures increasing.
When the PDO is negative as it has been for most of this century (except 2014-2018) La Nina’s dominate and there is little if any warming, or maybe some cooling as happened in the previous negative phase of the PDO (1945-1975).
It’s my belief that over timescales of 20-30 years the PDO can have a greater effect on global temperature than the sun, but on longer timescales solar factors become more important than internal variations in the climate/oceans.
What causes the PDO to change from positive to negative (or vice versa) is something I can’t find an explanation for. If scientist don’t know what drives these changes then they can’t predict what it will do next. Therefore they don’t know if it will revert to positive thus offsetting some of the solar cooling that’s predicted over the next few decades, or become even more negative and enhance solar cooling.
“Changes in the relative frequency of El Nino and La Nina events are tied to changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO.”
and I agree, but you said that what “causes the PDO to change from positive to negative (or vice versa) is…” not clear. I tend to believe that the huge surface of the Pacific ocean directly exposed to solar high energy radiation and the high thermal capacity of water naturally makes the Sun the no. 1 suspect for the variation in intensity of the PDO.
Note for example what happened in 2014. At the beginning of cycle#24 the PDO was showing a clear trend to strong negative anomalies, and the first part of the maximum of cycle#24 was not very intense, but as soon as the intense 2nd part of the cycle manifested the PDO immediately reacted and started to warm up.
If you look at the data from the beginning of the XX century you will find that the PDO anomalies were similar to what is happening now.
“unfathomably complex” it is not.
The sun and water vapor control climate.
An obvious result of low solar output is cooling of the pacific and of course the equatorial region will show the most drastic change.
Evaporation is important, trees are important.
And a single recent volcanic eruption produced more CO2 than humans have in their entire history. CO2 has zero significant interactions with wavelengths which produce heat – but you already know that.
BTW- it’s over for the western US states – megadrought for sure.
“They” know this stuff – hence the covid scam and genocide jab – I worked on corona in grad school – the whole thing is horse sh*t and there is no “covid” just a mild cold virus – its mol bio dictates this.
AGREED. I agree 100% with your reply. From the climate B.S. right down to the molecular biology of the “COVID” SCAM.
I’m a retired meteorologist living in the mountains of west Texas usa.
The Northeastern Pacific Ocean is subject to a phenomenon called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO. When the waters in that area are above normal it is in the warm phase which lasts about 20 years. The El Nino phenomena is stronger, more frequent, and longer lasting during the warm phase.
In the cool phase, which lasts about 30 years, La Nina events are more frequent, stronger, and last longer.
The present cool phase began about 1998. The previous cool phase lasted from the late 1940s to 1976.
So, 3 consecutive La Nina winters are unusual but not entirely unexpected.
All that said, the elephant in the room is a grand solar minimum.
Hi Richard. Any thoughts on what phenomenon flicks the switch between those two phases?
Yeah…go OUTSIDE during the Daylight and look up…that million mile big ball of Plasma wee call SOL is what controls Earth’s temps.
You mean the existing Grand Solar Minima Right?
We are presently fully in the EDDY Minmimum and all things cold are presenting itself as ordered…by the Sun.
The Sun controls the temps of all Planets in our solar system and when Sol decides to take a ‘nap’ (Solar Minima) all Planets will cool respective to their distance from Sol.
SO…to make it simple and short (too late)…Earth is going to be colder and snowier until Sol decides to wake up from HIS ‘nap’.
Enjoy, learn to ski, learn to hunt Bambi and forest friends for meat and most of all…use plenty of good wood in a large wood burning stove to keep warm.
Molon Labe and ‘Let it Snow, Let it Snow……for Decades!!!
Yeah I know I’m an Old Fart asshole but I will SURVIVE!!!
Look at https://www.ventusky.com/?p=-15.2;-124.6;3&l=temperature-water and you will notice that the cold has spread farther South AND it has spread farther West almost to North of Fiji.
If this keeps going…well it going to be a Cold Time in Hell here in the North!!!
So there is not enough carbon in the atmosphere..??…..who would have guessed it…?
The “Energy Budget” produced by Trenberth et all shows that 83% of the radiation Earth emits to space comes from the atmosphere.
As only “Greenhouse gases” radiate to space this 83% comes from clouds and CO2 according to the theory.
Why would increasing the emissivity of the atmosphere by increasing levels of CO2 not cause MORE radiation to space thus assisting cooling.
And this is what the data shows – http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Nimbus/nimbus2.php
CO2 may not cause any warming at all – maybe it enhances cooling which is far more likely.
IF we enter a grand solar minimum AND we see cooling this will become the new mantra of the climate alarmists – stop CO2 production to stop freezing to death.
Interesting times coming I think.
This end time prophecy warning is brought us by the Bible