11 Scientific Predictions for the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum (spoiler: wrap up, it’s getting cold)

[This article was originally published on on Sept 18, 2020]

There is ever-mounting evidence warning the next epoch will be one of sharp terrestrial cooling due to a relative flat-lining of solar output.

The exact time-frame and depth of this next chill of solar minimum is still anyone’s guess, and the parameters involved (i.e., galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, solar wind flux etc.) remain poorly understood.

However, there are some great minds on the job, and below I’ve collated 11 best-guesses based on published scientific papers from respected researchers in the field. The list begins with eminent Russian astrophysicist K. Abdussamatov–though it is in no particular order.

Abdussamatov, 2016:

“The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24. The start of a solar grand minimum is anticipated in solar cycle 27 ± 1 in 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of phase of deep cooling in the new Little Ice Age in 2060 ± 11.

“The gradual weakening of the Gulf Stream leads to stronger cooling in the zone of its action in western Europe and the eastern parts of the United States and Canada. Quasi-bicentennial cyclic variations of TSI together with successive very important influences of the causal feedback effects are the main fundamental causes of corresponding alternations in climate variation from warming to the Little Ice Age.”

Abdussamatov, 2012:

Abdussamatov (2012)

Zharkova, 2020:

The Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.

“From 1645 to 1710, the temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere of the Earth plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. This likely occurred because the total solar irradiance was reduced by 0.22%. That led to a decrease of the average terrestrial temperature measured mainly in the Northern hemisphere in Europe by 1.0–1.5°C.

“The reduction of a terrestrial temperature during the next 30 years can have important implications for different parts of the planet on growing vegetation, agriculture, food supplies, and heating needs in both Northern and Southern hemispheres.

“This global cooling during the upcoming grand solar minimum (2020–2053) can offset for three decades any signs of global warming and would require inter-government efforts to tackle problems with heat and food supplies for the whole population of the Earth.”

Sanchez-Sesma, 2016:

“This empirical modeling of solar recurrent patterns has also provided a consequent multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward grand (super) minimum conditions for the upcoming period, AD 2050–2250 (AD 3750–4450).

Solar activity (SA) has non-linear characteristics that influence multiple scales in solar processes (Vlahos and Georgoulis, 2004). These millennialscale patterns of reconstructed SA variability could justify epochs of low activity, such as the Maunder minimum, as well as epochs of enhanced activity, such as the current Modern Maximum, and the Medieval maximum in the 12th century.

We can conclude that the evidence provided is sufficient to justify a complete updating and reviewing of present climate models to better consider these detected natural recurrences and lags in solar processes.

Sánchez-Sesma, 2015:

These millennial-scale patterns of reconstructed solar activity variability could justify epochs of low activity, such as the Maunder Minimum, as well as epochs of enhanced activity, such as the current Modern Maximum, and the Medieval Maximum in the 12th century.

“Although the reason for these solar activity oscillations is unclear, it has been proposed that they are due to chaotic behavior of non-linear dynamo equations (Ruzmaikin, 1983), or stochastic instabilities forcing the solar dynamo, leading to on-off intermittency (Schmittet al., 1996), or planetary gravitational forcing with recurrent multi-decadal, multi-centennial and longer patterns (Fairbridge and Sanders, 1987; Fairbridge and Shirley,1987; Charvátová, 2000; Duhau and Jager, 2010; Perry and Hsu, 2000).

It should be noted that all proponents of planetary forcing have forecasted a solar Grand Minimum for the upcoming decades, but one of them has also forecasted a Super Minimum for the next centuries (Perry and Hsu, 2000).”

Mörner, 2015:

By about 2030-2040, the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. 

“This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics: the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behaviour over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the centre of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction.

During the previous grand solar minima—i.e. the Sporer Minimum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809-1821)—the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.”

Mörner, 2018:

“The concept of an anthropogenic global warming (AGW) driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2 is compared to the concept of a natural global warming (NGW) driven by solar variability. The application of the AGW concept only rests on models, whilst the NGW concept rests on multiple observational and evidence-based facts.

Several scientists (e.g. [Landscheidt, 2003] [Charvátová, 2009] [Mörner, 2010] [ Mörner, 2015] [Abdussamatov, 2016]) have shown that we, in fact, are approaching a New Grand Solar Minimum in about 2030-2050. In analogy with the documented climate conditions during the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima, we may expect the return of a New Little Ice Age.”

Bianchini and Scafetta, 2018:

A simple harmonic model based on the 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 year oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima.

“The harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900-1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged grand solar minimum during 2020-2045.”

McCrann et al., 2018:

“The effect of the Sun’s activity on Earth’s climate has been identified since the 1800s.

“However, there are still many unknowns regarding the mechanisms connecting the Earth’s climate to the variation in solar irradiance. Climate modelling that implements the solar sciences is a novel approach that accounts for the considerable effect that natural factors have on the climate, especially at regional level.

“This paper discusses the noticeable effect that planet oscillations have on the Sun’s activity, which gives a very good correlation with the observed patterns in global surface temperatures, rainfall records and sea levels. In agreement with many studies that have identified a 60-year cycle in the variation of Earth’s temperature, it is expected that surface temperatures will reach a trough of the cycle around 2030-2040.

“Many studies have reported that lower than average European temperatures were recorded during periods of low solar activity [3]–[7]. Such periods of low solar activity are the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), Dalton minimum (1800-1820), 1900 minimum (1880-1900), and a slight decrease between 1940 and 1970.

“Current predictions on Solar activity show that we are in a low sunspot cycle, which is similar to that of the 1900 Minimum, and subsequent cycles are predicted to have even lower Solar activity, and therefore a drop in global temperatures is expected.”

Yndestad and Solheim, 2017:

“Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern MAXIMUM period from 1940 to 2015.

“The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot MINIMUM from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065. Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods.”

Fleming, 2018:

The cause of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age climate changes was the solar magnetic field and cosmic ray connectionWhen the solar magnetic field is strong, it acts as a barrier to cosmic rays entering the Earth’s atmosphere, clouds decrease and the Earth warms.

“Conversely when the solar magnetic field is weak, there is no barrier to cosmic rays—they greatly increase large areas of low-level clouds, increasing the Earth’s albedo and the planet cools. The factors that affect these climate changes were reviewed in ‘Solar magnetic field/cosmic ray factors affecting climate change’ section.

The current Modern Warming will continue until the solar magnetic field decreases in strength.

“If one adds the 350-year cycle from the McCracken result to the center of the Maunder Minimum which was centered in 1680, one would have a Grand Minimum centered in the year 2030.”

This article is no way comprehensive: there are hundreds–more likely thousands–of additional scientific papers and conclusions that put solar activity as the sole driver of Earth’s climate and terrestrial temperature.

Although nowhere-near complete, the article still exposes the politicized notion that “the science is settled” to be false.

The science is never settled. Ever. Period.

And while the masses continue to be duped by a politicized narrative of fire and brimstone, the reality of our cosmological journey spins-on. The Sun, it would appear, is entering its next epoch; one of relative hibernation — the upshot should mirror every other Grand Solar Minimum of the past; that is to say, cooling, crop loss, and famine.

Sleepless nights over a trace atmospheric gas–necessary for life on Earth–will soon be regarded as sheer folly.

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29 Thoughts to “11 Scientific Predictions for the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum (spoiler: wrap up, it’s getting cold)”

  1. Finn Olav Olsen

    Yndestad og Solheim put grand deep minimum to 2077, and Eddy minimum 2020 2117.

  2. Dennis

    The signs are all around that cooling has started for those of us that are aware and know what to look for. Thousands of cold and snowfall records being broken the world over just this year, even in Australia.

  3. Mark Johnson

    Well, the owner of this site lives in Portugal, or so he has posted here. I live in the UK. It’s hotter than I can remember it ever being, with one day so far over 40 degrees C (I’m 62) and we are officially in a drought, but at least my huge stock of winter firewood is well dried out. Portugal, France and Spain are experiencing wildfires and have severe water shortages. Not much comment on that on this site though… It’s all about the snow in Australia. Let’s see if the winter brings to promised freeze, because that ‘cooling’ sun is still as hot as hell.

    1. Mike

      Now what about Today?
      Trust me it is getting cooler OVERALL. There will be hot spots and cold spots so buckle up Sir…It’s Snow Time!

    2. Gatrillion

      What a lie, the first so called heatwave didn’t not last beyond 2 days. The current one is about to followed by another cold blast. Just nonesense coming from bots.
      In Albania there have been fires even though the grass is still green. Many of these fires are arson driven. It makes no sense in a year that’s not as hot as the prior year to have more wild fires.

    3. Debby

      You need to add in geoengineering for those heatwaves. All the chemicals our governments are loading into our skies with chem trails is causing the droughts and heat in some places and flooding in others. They’re trying to ruin crops and starve us, then blame it on climate change caused by us by driving our cars, flying, and heating our homes. Once this solar cycle starts kicking in, we’re in even more trouble.

  4. I find this all very interesting and plausible. I wish more would read it but we are getting very brainwashed by the media who are pushing GW. Every day maybe 5 times a day we hear about some catastrophe attached to global warming. Very brainwashed. Even people that are critical thinkers run this moniker. Oh how wrong they might be. It is hard to see this sort of data and I welcome the read of Electroverse and the other side to the argument.

    1. Deb

      I read a lot of novels and can’t even escape the AGW paradigm there. If there are still people around 100 years from now, they will look back upon this as a time of mass insanity.

  5. Dallas Schneider

    Thank you Cap for giving us some hard data to absorb.

    Interesting, note this article from 18 Sept 2020.
    That is two days before I posted my prediction of “Unimaginable Cold”
    coming this next winter which resulted in the Texas Freeze of Feb 2021~!
    I posted it 20 Sept 2020.

    Thanks, DS

  6. Dallas Schneider

    Bicentennial Definition & Meaning |
    pertaining to or in honor of a 200th anniversary: bicentennial celebration; a bicentennial exposition. consisting of or lasting 200 years: a bicentennial period. occurring every 200 years: the bicentennial return of a comet.
    “The New Little Ice Age Has Started – ScienceDirect
    Quasi-bicentennial solar cycles are the primary cycles that govern variations in the 11-year subsidiary cycles in TSI and solar activity (Abdussamatov, 2006, Abdussamatov, 2009a, Abdussamatov, 2009b, Abdussamatov, 2013a).”

    That may help settle the question a few days ago as to whether Europe will have it’s coldest winter in 100 years or 400 years. Seems like 200 years is a safer bet. DS

  7. Harry Davidson

    Fleming’s theory looks interesting. I had not seen it before.

    Personally I wouldn’t quote Zharkova, there is lot wrong with her paper, WUWT pulls is apart here:
    She is already proved wrong, Cycle 25 is much more energetic than she forecast.

  8. Dallas Schneider

    This morning in SW Florida I woke up to seeing the Full Moon AND Jupiter in the Western Sky!!! So the Moon, Jupiter AND the Saturn Conjunction tomorrow on
    14th Aug are conspiring this year to gravity induce separation from the warming rays of the Solar System Sun!

    Stay warm, it looks to be a cold one.
    After a couple of weeks of 105 temps, even San Angelo Texas looks to be cool
    with only ONE 100 F day this week trending into SW Fl tropical style weather
    with a cooling thunderstorm every afternoon for the next week.
    Truly the Climate is Changing, and it is not hot!!!


    no one is talking about the milankovitch cycle in 2024 and the 2 big eclipses across the usa that could trigger major earthquakes or volcanic eruptions..remember tambora in 1815 and the new madrid earthquake in 1811..both worth researching

  10. Anthony

    I hope I’m wrong about this coming winter. I thought we would have some crazy hot spells in England in 2022, followed by a crazy cold winter, mainly because of the la ñina effect. The problem was that we were having a cool summer up to the “heatwaves” and I wondered where the hot spells would come from. Well, as usual, they came from a change in wind direction and we were hit with three days of really hot winds off the Sahara. It’s a bit dry at the moment but, as I’ve said, we had a weeks rain two weeks ago in Northern England, so the grass is green. The hot sun ends tomorrow(Sunday) with rain all next week.

    1. Harry Davidson

      For Britain it’s all about the jetstreams. Jetstreams to the north – hot weather, jetstreams passing south or over us, wet and cool. By 22.08 it should be raining, with increasing winds. That’s from the jetstream forecast which is good for about 8 days or more, unlike the ‘weather forecast’. But it’s a forecast, it can let you down.

  11. Mystic’s Mystic

    Cap thanks have something to share. All the best.

  12. Martin

    In fact, you don’t need cold records. If your house or region stays at 0°C for several days in a row and you don’t have enough energy, it’s survival!
    In general we’ll have heat and cold or even natural extremes (Meridional Jet Stream), but it’s very difficult to generalize. A negative variation/balance (8….10 years) in the response of ocean temps is something that could be ‘deceiving’ the warmists, it’s something complex, but Abdussamatov cites this.
    Inquire and question its very important, for not to be dominated by lies.
    I also believed in AGW 11 years ago, but nothing they’ve proposed since 1996, nothing has happened. Heat records at one point on Earth do not melt the Poles.

  13. goldminor

    That is some interesting thoughts on what the future may bring. Here is my 2 cents on this issue. I see the current Warm Period as lasting another several centuries, either side of 2200 AD. I would be surprised to see an extra deep gsm during the middle of a Warm Period. Although there is such an example in the 1100s AD where temps took a big dip during the middle of the Medieval Warm Period. So it is possible.

    I place the climate shift points as such 1885/86 yo 1915/16 was a cool trend. Then from 1915/16 to 1946/47 there was a warm trend which was almost the equal of the current warm trend. A cool trend followed in the late 1940s and into the late 1970s.. Then this latest round of warminbg took hold. I think that there was a cool trend shift around 2007/08, but the excess heat which had built up in the oceans muted the next cool trend to where it was not obvious that the change had taken place. We should now see more evident cooling into the late 2030s as a result. The end of this decade is when we should see the start of a deeper cool trend. So there you have it.

  14. Andy L

    Here in Australia you only need to refer to the satellite images of the weather patterns affecting the continent. The usual west to easterly flow of pressure systems that is the predominant pattern is constantly being interrupted by very cold Polar Vortices from the South West to South in origin. The jetstreams have become distorted and following the Meridonial Flow rather than the usual lattitudinal flow. Thus as the MSM says ” brings unprecedented cold pools of Antarctic air” Well it’s not unprecedented,just not experienced in recent times. You can definitely see a correlation between GSM and long cold periods. It also has to be noted that since there is far LESS continental land in the SH, the cooling effect of the ” Little Ice Ages” is somewhat mitigated by the vast areas of oceans which warm and cold at a much slower rate compared to land areas. More people need to realise this cooling event is going to happen and just ignore the MSM go out do your own research. The NH winter is certainly going to be more severe for 2023 and onwards mark my words.

  15. Chris Norman

    Brilliant useful post Cap.

  16. Trevor

    Just a comment – in Central Qld of Australia the predominant rainfall comes from some type of periodic trough system that typically begins in the tropics near Darwin in the NW and spears SE to about Brisbane ( and Sydney). Whereas the cold patterns typically being talked about on Electroverse are in the southern or temperate parts of Australia with pressure highs and lows and cold fronts. The climate pattern and drivers are different there to those here in the tropics.

    I am not doubting the expected global cooling merely offering a weather observation – having lived in both southern and northern Australia and involved in wild fire management in both.

  17. Geoffrey Ballard

    Is the current severe drought in Europe due to the changing jet stream i. e . from a zonal flow to a meridional flow? If so, this also should be reported on – not just the heavier than usual snow falls in Australia and other parts of the world.
    I an detecting a bias in reporting of these weather changes.

    Comments welcome.

    1. Deb

      In Missouri, we have had the hottest summer that anyone can remember. And the humidity has been even more unbearable than usual.

      The other morning when I woke up I turned on the weather radio. The temp was 74F, which ought to be quite pleasant, but the humidity was 97%! When I stepped outside, I felt like I was being smothered. I went back inside for a soup spoon so I could ingest some air, lol!

      We have had weeks of days around 100F, with the heat index well over 100. Our weather got stuck in that pattern for quite some time, whereas a rollercoaster pattern is normal for Missouri.

      I imagine the meridional jet stream is responsible, NOT global warming. Especially since everybody from The Farmer’s Almanac to Fox News are predicting a severe winter.

      And considering that God provided me with a tree-that fell right smack down between the front of my cabin and my Jimmy-which I will be obliged to cut up into firewood, I’m taking the predictions seriously.

      It’s my understanding that Cap does not report on hot weather because of the plethora of other sources which do only that.

    2. Matt Dalby

      Drought in Europe is most likely due to a meridional jet stream. I’m not convinced it should be called severe, that is just the MSM looking for clickbait and pushing the usual AGW nonsense. In England the drought seems similar in intensity to 1997 and not as bad as 1976 and possibly a couple of other dry years before then. Obviously the further back we go the less water was used both for agriculture and domestically so the severity of droughts can’t be measured just by looking at reservoir levels.
      IMO it would be a waste of time Cap reporting on droughts, localised heat waves etc. since these are hyped to death in the MSM, and the best thing about electroverse is that it reports what the MSM doesn’t want people to know thus providing some much needed balance and sanity.

  18. Oly's pal Dirk Pitt's lost cousin Delbert

    SC 26 could be bigger than SC 25, either way I’ll never know because I’ll be dead by then so it’s not worth any of my time thinking about it or trying to prove it might or might not happen. I just enjoy monitoring current global weather and space weather conditions objectively with no bias and learning as much about how the system works with the tools I have acquired along the way. Relax, enjoy the view…

    1. Deb

      Very zen of you, “Delbert”.

      1. Deb

        PS If you want to relax, might I suggest a zen garden?

  19. Paul Greenland

    You guys might want to look into this recent study to do with forcing due to the orbital eccentricities of the Jovian bodies (gas-giants)
    They are forecasting a deep cold interval already underway and centered around 2070.
    This in addition to the Solar Minimum.
    Cold is coming.

    1. Fran

      Insteresting article, thanks for sharing. 🙂

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