Cold Records Fall In Western Australia As Rare Third La Niña Builds; 4 Feet Of Snow Forecast For Southern Andes; Bermuda And Puerto Rico Chill; + Global Grain Stocks Cut (again)

Cap Allon

Cold Records Fall In Western Australia…

The Antarctic air currently residing over Western Australia has resulted in a host of busted temperature records.

Benchmarks for ‘lowest maximum temperatures’ have been tumbling this week.

In Telfer, for example, located at 21S, record-low highs of between 9C (48.2F) and 12C (53.2F) have been noted.

While snow has settled on the Stirling Range:

Snow Falls In The Stirling Range As Antarctic Blast Sweeps Western Australia; “Boomer Season” Keeps New Zealand Ski Fields Open For An Extra Week; + Brits Braced For Winter Blackouts, Gov Draws-Up Emergency Plan


…As Rare Third La Niña Build

There remain vast areas of the central/astern Pacific Ocean experiencing below average sea surface temperatures. Patterns there remain quite ‘La Niña like’ and are well-placed to fire us back into full-blown La Nina conditions.

Some models put a 65% chance on this occurring, which is significant, and would result in a rare triple La Niña event (the fourth since 1900).

Stronger than usual easterly trade winds have continued across much of the western Pacific this southern hemisphere winter–a pattern typical with La Nina–which points to a higher potential for moisture to push in from the Pacific Ocean along the east coast as we move towards Australia’s spring.

Also, La Niña looks set to combine with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IDO)–peak due Sept/Oct–which bolsters the chances of a wetter than usual spring Down Under: a strong negative IDO typically correlate with an earlier start to the storm season.

Sky News Australia puts it bluntly: “it’s wet and it’s going to stay wet for at least another six months.”

The Bureau of Meteorology declared the most recent event over in June; however, as is often the case when it comes to the BoM, Mother Nature is doing the opposite — the rain has kept coming and the Pacific has cooled again during the past few weeks.

The atmosphere is responding to the change in ocean temperatures, and, as discussed above, all major Pacific indicators are signalling La Niña, including:


* SSTs below average

* Trade winds stronger than normal with cloud cover near International Dateline below normal

* Southern Oscillation Index is strongly positive and well beyond the La Niña threshold

* Sub-surface Pacific temperatures are cooling


It’s no surprise then that the US’s NOAA along with Japanese agencies have set the Pacific status at a rare third La Niña. Indeed, the oceanic phenomenon likely spells larger headaches for meteorologists, and indeed authorities, across the northern hemisphere: La Niña’s are linked to colder-than-average winters with increased snowfall across much of the NH, including North America and Europe–something the EU will be praying to doesn’t manifest given its particularly-dire energy outlook.


Bermuda And Puerto Rico Chill

July 2022 in Bermuda finished with an average temperature of 27.2C (81F), which is -0.2C below the 1971-2000 baseline (a historically cold era).

And similarly in Puerto Rico, located a 10-hour flight to the south, the Caribbean island and unincorporated U.S. territory averaged 83F (28.3C), which is -0.3F below the multidecadal average.


4 Feet Of Snow Forecast For Southern Andes

A monstrous winter storm is on track to slam into the southern Andes today, lasting into next week. By Tuesday, most ranges and resorts will see snow totals of 4+ feet, with some spots expecting 6+ feet.

Large, deep troughs are rotating a series of four shortwave troughs over the Southern halves of Argentina and Chile, each rich with subtropical moisture and all subject to pooling polar air–a combination which threatens to fuel a record-breaking snow event.

The initial shortwaves pushed into the region Thursday, and have already delivered dense snow to high and low elevations alike. Directly behind the first wave is an even colder airmass, on course to push in early Friday and stay in place through the weekend.

The second shortwave will have arrived by Friday morning. It will combine with the initial waves and frigid air to deliver a greater moisture surge. This see more widespread snow sweep the southern Andes.

The third shortwave trough will bring yet more heavy and widespread snow Saturday through Sunday; while the fourth and final shortwave will rotate through Monday, which looks to be a case of saving the best until last. The finale will pack the biggest punch,the wave looks to have the most moisture of the series and, as a result, threanes to dump the heaviest accumulations.

As reported by snowbrains.com, the four major global deterministic models –the ECMWF, GFS, GDPS, and ICON– and their ensemble counterparts are putting the ‘bullseye’ just to the northeast of Gulf de Ancud:

Southern South America ECMWF Snowfall Map, through Aug 14, 2022 [map.weatherbell.com].


Looking further ahead, additional rounds of heavy snowfall are on the cards next week as another polar trough looms.

All of this snow will undoubtedly send records tumbling, just as the accumulations did last month, an all; totals that helped drive South America’s snow extent to all-time highs:

South America Snow Extent At All-Time Highs — A Forerunner For The Coming Northern Hemisphere Winter


Also worth mentioning: Argentina’s entire Autumn season (March-April-May) was the nation’s coldest since 1976 (solar minimum of weak cycle 20), and those anomalous chills–and the snow flurries they’re causing–have clearly persisted into winter and aren’t set to abate anytime soon.

These are realities the MSM purposefully ignore.

The likes of CNN and the BBC, et al., go out of their way to assure such inconvenient climatic phenomena go unreported. This further misinform a public already blinded to the natural ‘balancing act’ our planet routinely plays: hot in one region (Western Europe, for example), and fiercely cold in another (most recently, South America).

The problem for the AGW Party, however, is that they’re having to ignore pretty much ALL of the southern hemisphere this winter, because wherever you look, from South America to Australia, SH landed masses, and indeed the oceans, are experiencing historic and prolonged chills.

Is Australia Experiencing A ‘Volcanic Winter’?


The mainstream media’s aim–their order received from ‘on high’–is to make the general population fearful of standard summer heat, to condition them into believing that heatwaves are a new, increasingly-destructive climatic phenomenon.

This is patently untrue, of course, as revealed by the data. Heatwaves are most certainly not new; and in any case, Western Europe’s high temperatures over the past few weeks can be explained by an African plume riding anomalous far north on the back of a weak and wavy ‘Meridional‘ jet stream flow which itself is the result of a bout of historically low solar activity.

To that point, EVERYTHING can be explained by natural forcings — Brothers Grimm fairy-tales are not required, nor are the wholly deficient yet economically painful environmental policies enforced by green-hamstrung politicians, policies that do nothing but transfer yet more wealth ‘up’.

This is seemingly their end goal: to price the middle class out of existence.

They want a two-tier economy: the 99% vs 1%.


Global Grain Stocks Cut (again)

Food shortages, in combination with an energy crisis, are the key components in their aforementioned plot. A population on its knees, hungry and cold, will dutifully accept any new system put in front of it, no matter how draconian: if it fills their bellies and sees the energy flow again then it’ll simply be a case of, “Where do I sign? Be damned with the small print!”.

Wheat

Agricensus’ monthly survey of analysts has seen global ending stocks (for wheat) nudge lower, again. Globally, on average, analysts polled are projecting stocks to continue to decrease, by 100,000 mt to 267 million mt.

In the US, and ahead of the latest USDA’s crop report (due to be released 12:00 ET Aug 12), the winter wheat harvest was reported as being 86% complete as of the week ending Aug 7, which is behind the 94% during the same week last year. While elsewhere, the spring wheat crop harvest was reported at 9% complete, down from 35% in 2021.

Turning attention to the Black Sea.

While the media made much of the first grain-filled vessel setting off from the Ukraine since February, the payload has been rejected after inspection at its destined port — the grain was found to be black and moldy and not even suitable for animal feed.

At 81.5 million mt, the USDA’s outlook for Russian wheat production also continues to look poor, where cold and wet conditions continue to hamper the yield. The harvest is also running well behind schedule due to the inclement weather.

Corn

Switching back to the United States, but focusing now on corn, the USDA is set to further downgrade US crop conditions and rein in its overall production figure in the days ahead as hot and dry conditions across the country’s main producing regions threaten immature crops that had a late start due to a persistently-frigid spring.

“West-central areas will see limited rain for the corn belt,” Terry Reilly, senior grain and oilseed commodity analyst at Futures International, told Agricensus. “We expect to see western corn belt states post a decline in good/excellent ratings,” he added.

Nationally, corn conditions were noted at 58% in good-to-excellent condition in the week ended August 7; this is the with the USDA ‘holding back’ somewhat on the truth, too, as they often do in times of concern. But even with this unrealistic, rose-tinted picture, 58% is still down from the 61% that we were at last week, and down significantly from the 64% a year earlier.

Any reduction in corn production would have a negative impact on farmers raising livestock, market participants said. These regions are “feeding areas so the poorer crops there mean higher basis levels and pressure feed margins for cattle growers,” said Jeffrey McPike of McWheat Inc.

Enjoy your weekend.

Don’t underestimate the threat posed by this coming NH winter.

Prepare: stock up.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

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