Cold Spain, Cyprus And Eastern Europe; SSW Update; + Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence To Forecast Sunspot Cycles
Cold Spain, Cyprus And Eastern Europe
Despite the calls for a ‘no show winter’, swathes of Europe have held anomalously-cold since the turn of the year.
January 2023 in Spain, for example, had an average temperature of 5.9C (42.6F), which is below the multidecadal average.
Temperature anomalies map comes courtesy of Aemet.
The cold has also swept the likes of Cyprus, Greece and Italy, where it is still being felt into February.
Chromio, Cyprus –near Mount Olympus– recently plunged to -12C (10.4F) which is just 0.6C off of breaking the national record, according to the Cyprus Department of Meteorology. A chilly -11C was logged at Troodos Mountain — a new all-time low for the locale.
It has been bitingly cold across Eastern Europe in recent weeks, culminating in the recent -31.9C (-25.4F) posted in Turkey, the -31.1C (-24F) in Romania, -30C (-22F) in Montenegro, -24C (-11.2F) in Serbia.
Looking ahead, much of Europe is forecast a reprieve from the freeze this week, with concerns turning to that developing SSW…
The Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event first discussed Friday is progressing as forecast.
The event is set to deliver a full-blown reversal of the Zonal winds through the second half of February, with any impacts on our Lower Tropospheric weather due into March.
Below is an updated pressure and temperature forecast for the middle Stratosphere this week.
Clearly visible is that strong stratospheric warming wave advancing across the Polar regions, which is weakening the Polar Vortex via a reversing of the circulation and effectively forcing it out of the North Pole.
In other words, the stratospheric Polar Vortex is breaking down.
Such a Stratospheric event will impact lower atmospheric levels — the question is to what extent.
Based on first indications this is setting up to be a full-blown breakdown of the stratospheric circulation meaning we should expect a strong impact on the lower troposhere (where our weather happens), likely by early-March.
Arctic outbreaks and the anomalous cold and increased snowfalls they deliver are typical of such events, with history informing us that the worst hit regions are typically the eastern United States, northern Russia and Europe.
Much is left to be determined, however, so stay tuned for updates.
Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence To Forecast Sunspot Cycles
[Below is an abridged version of an article originally posted on the now censored/’vanished’ electroverse.net]
Scientists have used artificial intelligence to predict sunspots looking forward AND also correct the incomplete record of the past.
A paper published in Advances in Space Research by Dr Victor Velasco Herrera, a theoretical physicist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico; Dr Willie Soon, an award-winning solar astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics; and Professor David Legates, a climatologist at the University of Delaware and former director of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, predicts that the new 11-year solar cycle that has recently begun will show near-record low sunspot activity that will last until mid-century.
When there are many sunspots, i.e. when the Sun is active, there is a danger that a strong solar ejection directed towards the Earth could damage or even destroy the thousands of satellites on which the world depends for everything — from radio, telephone, television and internet communications to monitoring the climate and observing the farthest reaches of the universe.
Worse, a very strong solar storm could damage the largely unshielded terrestrial electricity grid. Most power lines and transformers are above ground and thus acutely vulnerable. Solar panels, too, could have their lives shortened by intense solar radiation.
The three scientists taught a machine-learning algorithm how to recognize underlying patterns and cycles in the past 320 years’ sunspot record.
The algorithm then discovered a hitherto-unnoticed interaction between the 5.5-year solar half-cycles (blue) and the 120-year Gleissberg double cycles (red dotted lines–as shown in the figure below) which allowed it to confirm the earlier predictions of a quiet half-century to come — predictions which are now shared by solar physicists.
That interaction between the two periodicities led the algorithm to indicate that from the 1730s to the 1760s, early in the modern sunspot record (the gray band), sunspots appear to have been under-recorded: as the 120-year cycle approached its maximum amplitude, sunspots should have been more numerous than reported at the time.
The algorithm then predicted the sunspots from 2021 to 2100.
It suggests that the current low solar activity is likely to continue until 2050:
Dr Soon said: “The machine-learning algorithm, with its interesting interplay between the very short 5.5-year cycle and the long 120-year cycle, confirms our results of 10-15 years ago suggesting that the next three or four solar cycles will be comparatively inactive. This is the first time that the twin problems of hindcasting incomplete past records and forecasting the future have been combined in a single analysis.”
Dr Legates said: “Given the history of previous periods of comparative solar activity, the weather may get a little cooler between now and 2050. If we are right, our electricity grids and our satellites should be safe until then.”
You can download the new paper HERE.
I, personally, feel that what we’re currently seeing with solar cycle (25)–i.e. daily sunspot numbers firing around the 200 mark–is ‘death throes’, with the cycle spitting out a final burst of energy before an earlier-than-forecast peak followed by a steady and uneventful demise — a fizzling out.
It has long-been my contention that cycle 26 is where the real ‘fun’ begins, where a stark drop in activity correlates with a sharp drop in global temperatures… but we may not need to wait that long.
If SC25 ends comparable to SC24–the weakest cycle in more than a century–as is looking likely, then we will already be well on our way to posting an extended Minimum period, one comparable to the Dalton Minimum where global temps plunged -2C in less than 20 years, with a deeper, full-blown GRAND Solar Minimum still potentially in the offing.
Time will tell, of course. But note that global temperatures are already (as of Jan 2023) down 0.75C from their 2016 peak, and another 1.25C decrease isn’t all that hard to imagine, particularly considering the cumulative effects of the historically low solar activity we’ve been experiencing since the early-2000s, which continue to mount.
And lastly, for those thinking that this recent uptick in output means Solar Cycle 25 is unusually-strong and is firing above its predecessor, think again: The latest ‘solar cycles comparison’ chart (Feb 13), courtesy of solen.info, paints a clear picture…
16 Thoughts to “Cold Spain, Cyprus And Eastern Europe; SSW Update; + Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence To Forecast Sunspot Cycles”
Hello Cap, good morning. The corn seeds we find selling everywhere are the modern ones, all giving relatively big corn grains, and the chickens don’t like them big. Maybe you can find a local old man who still has heirloom corn from the older times. This corn gives small grains, hence some call it “milho dentinho de rato”. The advantage with this heirloom corn is that the chickens will gladly eat its grains whole because they are small enough to eat whole. Consequently we can skip having equipment to grind the he. This corn is so sought after that you won’t find it in shops but through some old local. Hope all will go well with your ploughing of the soil. Good luck! Ana
I’m currently growing ‘golden bantam’, which I believe to be an old heirloom variety — is this correct?
Hi Cap, it isn’t. Nobody sells them, I looked and looked for it. Typically will be an inconspicuous old man with a horta and some chickens maybe a sheep or two. I got some grains after talking with locals, in the tasca or in the mercearia . This kind of thing. One day you will bump into the right person, but dont wait too long because the old people are dying. This grain is interesting because you wont need a grinder to feed it to the chickens and ALSO it needs less water than the other corns. In case of draught, you won’t have a lot but some will survive. It’s called sequeiro (= that it does not need (as much) water. If you look at the grain of G. Bantham, it is flattened on the sides, whereas the grain of this old one is completely round and smaller. The corn cobs are small, rustic, nothing like the perfect ones we see around. They are rustic, so the grain is not strong enough for seeding purposes after one year or so. Try to multiply them from the few you can find. As a minimum, for conservation purposes, every year you put a few grains aside and seed these just to make a seed bank for next year, and so on, so that this variety doesn’t die off. Don’t seed this corn near any other corn, or at least try to keep it as far as possible, to avoid cross pollination and disturb the original genetics. I learned all this with the locals and it’s great I found someone I can pass it on to like they did to me. I shared some grains with a neighbour just in case something happens with mine. Milho dentinho de rato, is its nickname here in Norte Alentejo. Treat it like gold because they are hard to find. Best regards, Ana
Thank you for the valuable information.
So its nickname is ‘Milho dentinho de rato’?
What is its official name — does it have one?
Anyway, I will be sure to ask about, I have a few useful local contacts.
A good corn grain for both Humans and animals is Hickory King. White LARGE kernels if picked early are for human consumption and later for animals. BUT ya gotta crack these kernels cuz they BIG!
And they store very well.
Convergence zone, the solar concentrator reaches the Arctic.
When the sun reaches the Tropic of Capricorn and then begins it’s trek back towards the north. The reflected sun light bouncing into space off of the huge Northern Hemisphere snow pack, will converge at some point in the atmosphere with some of the sun rays that completely miss the earth but still travel through the earth’s atmosphere. A focal point of solar radiation. Reflected rays combine with non reflected rays. With the new future of a snow pack that is moving further and further to the south this phenomenon will be seasonally present. To illustrate the prediction of convergence moving toward the Arctic I’m going just pick a starting point. Let’s guess 50 degrees north. The true starting point may differ with snowpack coverage and size.
Now we have a hot spot in the atmosphere that rotates around the planet as the earth turns. At lower latitudes, parts of the earth are shielded from the sun light so at this point in time you only have a hot spot. As the days go by and the sun continues it’s movement northward toward the Tropic of Cancer, the hot spot moves more and more northward until it arrives above the Arctic.
The two converging sun rays primary and reflected reach the atmosphere above the Arctic but now it will be in the same location above the north poll 24 hours a day.
Does that contribute to Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)? Maybe, but it is pretty much impossible that this convergence doesn’t happen. Does it actually create a hot spot?
Under cloudy and clear skies it may differ.
What do you think? The power of double sun light might explain Arctic warming in GSM increased snowpack conditions.
Another excellent article. Herrera, Soon and Legates AI algorithm is great thought their forward prediction is diplomatic speak for a modern minimum.
This mirrors Zharkova’s mathematical interpretation of magnetic flux which similarly forecasts a non existent twenty two year SC26 followed by warming from mid century until 2600 AD.
This corroborates your own assertion of an ultra week SC26. Dare I be impudent and suggest satirically a “Scientific Consensus”
The AI algo sunspot prediction chart above shows SC26 is going to be larger than SC24 and SC25.
We need to remember that the earth’s magnetic shield has been weakening lot and will continue to do so for many years. This leaves the earth and our electric grid, satellite and all things electric much more vulnerable to sun outbursts. Even a smaller CME could do great damage. So don’t count on the power to continue until 2050 and beyond. Prepare to survive without it. SO
Exactly Kate there is some evidence to prove that recently many starlink sats were wiped out by a small cme.
“Such a Stratospheric event will impact lower atmospheric levels — the question is to what extent.
Based on first indications this is setting up to be a full-blown breakdown of the stratospheric circulation meaning we should expect a strong impact on the lower troposphere (where our weather happens), likely by early-March.”
To what extent will areas like KY/Tenn be affected by this SSW?
Just curious cuz I heat with wood…need to cut MORE!!!
Greetings from Ohio in the U.S.!
I just saw a scare report about almond trees “blooming a month earlier than normal” in southern Spain. It was given as “more proof of human-induced climate change.”
I would assume the early blossoming – if it is happening at all – is in an anomalous pocket of Spain?
Cap Allon, As you said, you live in Portugal, maybe you are learning the local language… and this Site (not active), maybe it can be useful for you too, I learned many things from it.
This link was created from an Italian (Scientist, I think ) who lived in Brazil.
It’s very rich in geographic, geological and mainly ‘Sun and Climate Change’ (Solar Science) information. As these articles and posts follow the same idea proposed here. He called himself: Sand-rio
Some interesting Links:
Naysayers, soothsayers, The movie : The Day after Tomorrow, is actually a credible scientific theory, if the AMOC breaks down sufficiently enough, now it is at its weakest in 1000 years, Its weakening mostly attributed by the mainstream due to AGW in the industrial era , a SSW event of Hollywood proportions really could throw us back into the ice age.
Welcome to the Anthropecene is like a tiktok for the mother earth.
According to Tony Heller (and maybe Cap) this has happened in the past…nice to Ice Age in a few months.
In the movie, super cyclones from global warming pulled the frozen air down from space. Heat driven cyclones:
Just like now with solar flares setting off volcanos forming cyclones:
Record cold from solar flares, not from no solar flares.