Heavy Snow Strikes Lebanon; The Balkans Freeze; Collapse Of The Polar Vortex Looms (SSW); + Top Russian Space Scientist: “We Should Fear A Deep Temperature Drop, Not Global Warming”
Heavy Snow Strikes Lebanon
Western Asia continues to get pounded with anomalous lows and disruptive snows.
Today’s Lebanon, particularly the norther districts of Bsharri and Keserwan.
The snow depth in Hadchit is measuring at 1.2m (almost 4 feet), with far larger accumulations posted at higher elevations.
Mount Hermon, the summit of which straddles the Syria/Lebanon border is seeing Arctic-like conditions:
The Balkans Freeze
The cold is infecting regions to the west, too, including the Balkans area of southeastern Europe.
Turkey is suffering freezing lows and blizzard conditions to close the week which is compounding the tragedy resulting from Monday’s historic earthquake. Those impacted are having to choose between staying inside–with the risk of building collapse, or venturing outside–with the risk of hypothermia.
The cold is extending into the likes of Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia, too, with bone-chilling lows posted there this morning.
A remarkable -31.1C (-24F) was posted in Romanina, in Întorsura Buzăului.
A station at Bükk Mountains, Hungary dropped to a staggering -23.9C (-11F) this morning.
Cold Jans For New Caledonia, Martinique And Reunion
Very briefly:
January 2023 in New Caledonia, Martiniqe and Reunion finished with average temperatures below the multidecadal average.
Collapse Of The Polar Vortex Looms (SSW)
Next week, the Stratosphere is expected to serve up a full-blown Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW).
Multiple forecasts are calling for a reversing of the stratospheric circulation from westerly to easterly, playing out during the second-half of February (note the green line below):
Moreover, this SSW looks strong and threatens to be a record-challenging event.
As well as the GEFS ensembles, as embedded above, the ECMWF is also picking up on it.
The ECMWF shows the zonal wind reversing into negative territory and then holding there for an extended period:
This event is also visible in the monstrous warming wave currently forecast for the mid-stratosphere (see below).
This wave is predicted to engulf the polar regions, combine with a strong emerging polar “anti-vortex” over the North Pacific/western Arctic, and then ‘spit’ the Polar Vortex out and to the south:
Next, the pressure anomalies map highlights this powerful high-pressure system, or “anti-vortex”.
Such strong pressure anomalies will often displace the main Polar Vortex and reverse the circulation.
Tellingly, this warming is also present in the lower Stratosphere (that is, approx. 19km or 12miles).
The lower the warming permeates, the more robust it the event is.
Reaching these levels adds support to this being a very strong event.
North America is forecast another Arctic blast next week, but this is not tied to the aforementioned SSW event.
SSWs can take a week or two to impact our lower troposphere/latitude weather as their ‘effects’ have to ‘filter down’ from the Stratosphere. North America’s looming cold shot is merely your standard buckling of the jet stream (a phenomenon predicted to increase during times of low solar activity, such as the historically low output we’re experiencing now).
I will be sure keep track of atmospheric developments over the weekend –i.e. the temperature, pressure, and wind anomalies in the Stratosphere– and will report back Monday. If this to be a true collapse, anomalies should start shifting ‘downwards’, slowly, filtering into the lower atmospheric levels as February progresses.
It’s still early days, but conditions are currently ripe for an SSW event making a run for the lower troposphere (where our weather happens). Both the ECMWF and GEFS extended ensemble solutions show an SSW development. So all eyes on the skies.
Top Russian Space Scientist: “We Should Fear A Deep Temperature Drop, Not Global Warming”
“The Sun defines the climate, not carbon dioxide,” so says eminent Russian space scientist, Habibullo Abdussamatov (Dr. Sc. – Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory).
Observations of the Sun show that carbon dioxide is “not guilty” for the steady increase in temperature observed over the past few decades, and that what lies ahead in the coming years is not catastrophic warming but a global and very prolonged temperature drop.
The slight warming we just experienced had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 was insignificant — carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation, the Sun does.
The so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.
“We should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming,” warns Abdussamatov, who was one of the researchers featured in the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming.
“Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth.”
The global average temperature has already dropped 0.75C since the 2016 peak (UAH), and a further 1.25C-or-so drop will see us down to Maunder Minimum levels (a.k.a. the Little Ice Age) and we all know how well that went for humanity…
Earth’s climate is cyclic, never linear — driven mainly by the Sun.
The Sun is once again shutting down, relatively — prepare.
Cap what will the SSW do to our weather when it ‘flips’?
Thanks…
Nobody (not even the world’s best meteorologists) can say for sure at this point in time. Some SSW events have very little effect on the troposphere and hence the weather. All that can be said for sure is there’s a high probability that it will lead to disruption of the jet stream and increase the chances that mid latitude winds switch from mainly westerly to a more easterly or northerly direction . This means that the chances of a fairly long lasting very cold spell increases. However it’s likely that not all of the N Hemisphere will be affected. Therefore Europe could see bitter cold and heavy snow while the U.S. is unaffected, or vice versa, or maybe it’ll be Asia that cops the worst of it.
if ‘flips’ means reverse the direction in the stratosphere then expect some cold, A weak polar vortex in the statosphere is asocciated with a weak and bendy jet stream in the troposphere although the weak and bendy jet stream/Rossby waves can also affect the conditions for a breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex in the stratosphere .
Hey Cap, thanks for all the great articles about what is happening & what is approaching. On occasion when reading your articles I reflect back to Catholic school in 1963 when Sister Annett our teacher & principal told us that we were going to have a mini ice age, I have reflected on her words often over the years. Now it appears she was correct. When do you see this great temperature drop hitting us. Here in the Southern Sierras this winter & in Bakersfield the temp is about 10 degrees below average. I am not even riding the motorcycles this winter. Thanx again. Ron
With Truth like this no wonder NATO fears the Russians!!!
Dallas
As usual, I’m still waiting for snow in sunny Manchester UK. Everyone else and I mean everyone else seems to get the stuff but us Brits. Only when we and Western Europe go cold will the world wake up, maybe not even then as they are not that bright. We keep waiting for the white stuff, as large parts of the world where we often go for our summer holidays get covered. One day, please, one day… lol
The sea has a moderating impact. Look up continental climate vs maritime climate. That’s why our weather is so boring.
You have had snow in Manchester only a few weeks ago! Your airport was closed because of snow blocked runways.
When did Habibullo Abdussamatov make this statement and can I source it?
Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273361640_Grand_Minimum_of_the_Total_Solar_Irradiance_Leads_to_the_Little_Ice_Age
https://swamp-lynx.livejournal.com/466949.html
http://www.gaoran.ru/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/conf_2010.pdf
La declaración se parece al título de un paper del Dr.Zbigniew Jaworoski “Los ciclos solares determinan el clima, no el CO2”, es difícil no llegar a conclusiones similares a estas alturas del partido.
Breaking News ———– Accuweather Prediction:
Port Jervis, NY Monthly Temps
April 2023 https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/port-jervis/12771/april-weather/339741?year=2023
Scroll to bottom to see Graphics –
NEWS: The FIRST day for Port Jervis NY to have a LOW temp ABOVE FREEZING
has been pushed to 9th Day of April. Two weeks ago it was the 1st April, April Fools
Day. A week ago it was pushed later to 5th April 2023.
Today, 11 Feb 2023 the FIRST Day with an Above Freezing Night Time Low is
Predicted to be on the 9th of April 2023 at 33 F.
Lets see what actually happens? HUNGA TONGA???
Dallas
We’re in sync, Cap, on non-stop Narrative-nursing lies from fake-“Liberals,” pseudo-“Progressives” and their media whores —Totalitarian one & all. That said, please don’t undermine your/our credibility by hyping EVERY cold report.
Bükk Mountains, Hungary’s -23.9C (-11F), for instance, pales next to the capital Budapest’s -30C/-22F, which I’m old enough to recall from the frigid Euro winter of 1956 — and Budapest’s average elevation of 300m/984ft. is only about 1/2 Bükk´s.
Again, Cap, I positively TREASURE your work. May God bless you in pursuing it!
Hans
Hi elctroversers and curious bystanders.
Can anybody supply a simplistic description of the mechanism that causes Sudden Stratospheric Warming up above the arctic, in winter no less?
Also, a few months back a commenter provided a reference to an animated global weather site similar to Ventusky https://www.ventusky.com/?p=58;-149;1&l=pressure&t=20221223/1800 which I found a little more user friendly than Ventusky. If the reference could be resubmitted that would be appreciated and I would say a little prayer for you and Burt Bacharach.
Thank you. The Moff.
The curious part that I don’t understand is how if Antarctica is experiencing colder than normal temperatures for the past few years, why is the ice extent so low?
@Jeffrey Johnson My intuition about this phenomenon is that the intensification of the meridional jet-stream, due to low solar activity, is affecting the polar ice-caps and probably spreading the lower temps of Antarctica to lower latitudes. I believe the disruption of the jet-stream has increased since the beginning of solar cycle-24 and it is probably also affecting ENSO, making it more “anomalous”, etc.
Always a big puzzle is the UK. This year, after a week in December of freezing cold, frost ice and snow, winter has largely abandoned us. above average temperatures, little snow, in parts none at all. In Mainland western Europe somewhat similar, and poor showing of snow in the Alps. East USA also complains about poor snowfall and any real winter in spite of a blast or two for a short time. So will there be any effects from the SSW now underway? Who knows: March is more or less the end of winter.