Heavy Snow Strikes Lebanon; The Balkans Freeze; Collapse Of The Polar Vortex Looms (SSW); + Top Russian Space Scientist: “We Should Fear A Deep Temperature Drop, Not Global Warming”

Heavy Snow Strikes Lebanon

Western Asia continues to get pounded with anomalous lows and disruptive snows.

Today’s Lebanon, particularly the norther districts of Bsharri and Keserwan.

The snow depth in Hadchit is measuring at 1.2m (almost 4 feet), with far larger accumulations posted at higher elevations.

Mount Hermon, the summit of which straddles the Syria/Lebanon border is seeing Arctic-like conditions:


The Balkans Freeze

The cold is infecting regions to the west, too, including the Balkans area of southeastern Europe.

Turkey is suffering freezing lows and blizzard conditions to close the week which is compounding the tragedy resulting from Monday’s historic earthquake. Those impacted are having to choose between staying inside–with the risk of building collapse, or venturing outside–with the risk of hypothermia.

The cold is extending into the likes of Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia, too, with bone-chilling lows posted there this morning.

A remarkable -31.1C (-24F) was posted in Romanina, in Întorsura Buzăului.

A station at Bükk Mountains, Hungary dropped to a staggering -23.9C (-11F) this morning.

Cold Jans For New Caledonia, Martinique And Reunion

Very briefly:

January 2023 in New Caledonia, Martiniqe and Reunion finished with average temperatures below the multidecadal average.

Collapse Of The Polar Vortex Looms (SSW)

Next week, the Stratosphere is expected to serve up a full-blown Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW).

Multiple forecasts are calling for a reversing of the stratospheric circulation from westerly to easterly, playing out during the second-half of February (note the green line below):

Moreover, this SSW looks strong and threatens to be a record-challenging event.

As well as the GEFS ensembles, as embedded above, the ECMWF is also picking up on it.

The ECMWF shows the zonal wind reversing into negative territory and then holding there for an extended period:


This event is also visible in the monstrous warming wave currently forecast for the mid-stratosphere (see below).

This wave is predicted to engulf the polar regions, combine with a strong emerging polar “anti-vortex” over the North Pacific/western Arctic, and then ‘spit’ the Polar Vortex out and to the south:


Next, the pressure anomalies map highlights this powerful high-pressure system, or “anti-vortex”.

Such strong pressure anomalies will often displace the main Polar Vortex and reverse the circulation.


Tellingly, this warming is also present in the lower Stratosphere (that is, approx. 19km or 12miles).

The lower the warming permeates, the more robust it the event is.

Reaching these levels adds support to this being a very strong event.


North America is forecast another Arctic blast next week, but this is not tied to the aforementioned SSW event.

SSWs can take a week or two to impact our lower troposphere/latitude weather as their ‘effects’ have to ‘filter down’ from the Stratosphere. North America’s looming cold shot is merely your standard buckling of the jet stream (a phenomenon predicted to increase during times of low solar activity, such as the historically low output we’re experiencing now).

I will be sure keep track of atmospheric developments over the weekend –i.e. the temperature, pressure, and wind anomalies in the Stratosphere– and will report back Monday. If this to be a true collapse, anomalies should start shifting ‘downwards’, slowly, filtering into the lower atmospheric levels as February progresses.

It’s still early days, but conditions are currently ripe for an SSW event making a run for the lower troposphere (where our weather happens). Both the ECMWF and GEFS extended ensemble solutions show an SSW development. So all eyes on the skies.

Top Russian Space Scientist: “We Should Fear A Deep Temperature Drop, Not Global Warming”

The Sun defines the climate, not carbon dioxide,” so says eminent Russian space scientist, Habibullo Abdussamatov (Dr. Sc. – Head of Space research laboratory of the Pulkovo Observatory).

Observations of the Sun show that carbon dioxide is “not guilty” for the steady increase in temperature observed over the past few decades, and that what lies ahead in the coming years is not catastrophic warming but a global and very prolonged temperature drop.

The slight warming we just experienced had a natural origin, the contribution of CO2 was insignificant — carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation, the Sun does.

The so-called ‘greenhouse effect’ will not avert the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last 7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming.

“We should fear a deep temperature drop — not catastrophic global warming,” warns Abdussamatov, who was one of the researchers featured in the 2009 U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made Global Warming.

“Humanity must survive the serious economic, social, demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop, which will directly affect the national interests of almost all countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth.”

The global average temperature has already dropped 0.75C since the 2016 peak (UAH), and a further 1.25C-or-so drop will see us down to Maunder Minimum levels (a.k.a. the Little Ice Age) and we all know how well that went for humanity…

Earth’s climate is cyclic, never linear — driven mainly by the Sun.

The Sun is once again shutting down, relatively — prepare.