No Scientific Consensus On A Warming Arctic And Extreme Weather

‘The impact of global warming on individual weather patterns is at the very limit of science’ — this is the mainstream position.

“It’s kind of like having a jigsaw but most of the pieces are missing,” said Dr Andrew King from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes at The University of Melbourne.

“We have really incomplete observations in many parts of the world and they don’t go back long enough in time to really track the climate for long enough.”

That missing data –often from remote places like the Arctic– is needed to build computer models of unprecedented detail that can better predict weather patterns, said Dr. King.

“We really need high-resolution simulations … But we just don’t have enough data to really make conclusive statements.”

Wavy Jet Stream Theory

There are belts of high-altitude wind that encircle the globe, called the jet stream, and weather systems often follow these tracks, explained Dr King — these winds are related to temperature differences between the cold polar regions and the warm tropics. 

If the world is indeed warming, as is the alarmist claim, and if the warming is indeed more pronounced over the higher latitudes versus the equator, as is detailed in the “Polar Amplification” theory, then that reduced temperature difference between the poles and the lower latitudes should “reduce the strength of the jet stream … and you might make it wavier or slower,” said Dr King.

A slower, wavier jet stream may allow storms to stick around longer, leading to more extreme weather; but there is no conclusive evidence that the jet stream is slowing due to anthropogenic global warming.

“There are a variety of studies looking into this, some of which find evidence to suggest this is happening –particularly from the model-based studies– [and] others which suggest this isn’t happening,” Dr King said. 

One recent study used detailed computer modelling to show how a warmer world would lead not only to more intense rain in Europe but also to slower storm movement; however, its lead author –Abdullah Kahraman, from Newcastle University in the UK– was at pains to qualify the limits of the study, saying it related to one very detailed computer simulation.

“This study does not really tell you that this will definitely be happening like that, because this is one scenario,” Dr Kahraman reluctantly admitted, illustrating the issue with climate models: the majority are pure fantasy.

Theories are abounding

…but there isn’t anything like the ‘consensus’ the MSM would have you believe.

“It’s basically an area of very active research, there are quite a few people around the world looking into this. And there is a diversity of views among scientists,” Dr King said.

“At the very least, I think we can say that we don’t have a great deal of confidence that this is a clear effect of climate change.

“But there is some indication that there might be more persistence of weather systems, as the jet stream may be allowing them to remain in place for longer.

“This could be contributing to some extreme weather events,” Dr King concluded.

The missing link: the Sun

Studying the jet stream has long been an indicator of the weather to come, and to study the jet stream attention must turn to the sun.

When solar activity is HIGH, the jet stream is tight and stable and follows somewhat of a straight path. But when solar activity is LOW, that meandering band of air flowing 6 miles above our heads becomes weak and wavy, it effectively buckles which diverts frigid Polar air to atypically low latitudes and replaces it with warmer tropical air.

Scientifically, the jet stream reverts from a Zonal Flow to a Meridional Flow, and, depending on which side of the jet stream you’re on, you’re either in for a spell of unseasonably cold or hot weather and/or a period of unusually dry or wet conditions.

Activity on the sun has been historically low in recent years.

The solar cycle just gone (SC24) turned out to be the weakest of the past 100+ years:

And cycle 25 is playing out very similarly, with updated predictions seeing it leveling off and peaking sooner than originally forecast:

Solar Cycle 25 progression (green line) compared to 24, 23, 22 & 21 [updated Oct 18, 2022 —]

Reduced solar output –and reduced solar output alone— is THE forcing behind the climatic changes we’re currently witnessing; changes that range from increasing polar outbreaks, heatwaves, an influx of cloud-nucleating cosmic rays, as well as an uptick in ‘sun-shading’ volcanic eruptions. Increasing carbon dioxide emissions have very little –if nothing– to do with the climate.

Both polar outbreaks AND intense bursts of heat are becoming more common as the aforementioned ‘meridional’ jet stream flow works to throw our weather patterns for a loop; this flow can cause the systems to become ‘locked’ in place, too, and for prolonged periods of time — i.e. ‘blocking’.

Overall however –and make no mistake about it– the Grand Solar Minimum is forecast to continue its deepening over the coming years/decades, which will result in global temperatures continuing their downward trend–observed since 2016.