Grand Solar Minimum: The Future Looks Cold

In recent years, the Sun has been at its weakest state in more than a century. This is revealed by the sunspot count (shown below)–a great barometer for solar activity.

Sunspot count from solar cycle 12 to the start of solar cycle 25.

The Sun’s output ebbs and flows on a roughly 11-year cycle.

As visualized above, the most recent solar cycle (24) finished up closely matching those of ‘The Centennial Minimum’ (≈1880-1914), the previous multi-cycle period of low output, aka a ‘Grand Solar Minimum’ (GSM).

Grand Solar Minimums themselves can also range in depth and length, and, crucially for all of Earth’s inhabitants, these factors determine the severity of the accompanying ‘global cooling’.

The Centennial Minimum was a relatively modest GSM.

Conversely, one of the strongest on record was the ‘Maunder Minimum’ (1645-1715). The MM, as documented by NASA, sent Europe and North America into a “deep freeze”:

“From 1650 to 1710, temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. During this period, very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun, and the overall brightness of the Sun decreased slightly. Already in the midst of a colder-than-average period called the Little Ice Age, Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland; sea ice crept south from the Arctic; and the famous canals in the Netherlands froze regularly—an event that is rare today.”

The above facts are no longer permitted in mainstream scientific debates, and calling them out sees you instantly dismissed as a conspiracy theorist. History, however, will view this censorship very poorly, and will see it as an illustration of the power of propagandizing.

Discovery, it would appear, is no longer welcome in the field of climate science, we apparently know all that there is to know. But in reality, this suppression is a necessity if the AGW train is to keep on rolling. It stands that the return of a cyclically waning Sun would instantly flush alarmists’ claims of never-ending temperature increases down the proverbial pan.

To add complexity, however, while Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during prolonged bouts of low solar activity, not all regions experience the chill. As visualized in NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Reconstruction Map’ (shown below), areas such as the Arctic, Alaska, and the North Atlantic actually warm during spells of otherwise ‘global’ cooling.

This appears to chime with what we’re seeing today, and, unlike the baseless ‘Polar Amplification Theory’, could explain why the Arctic is warming while the Antarctic is cooling.

Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

The Sun also goes through Grand Solar MAXIMUMS — periods of unusually high solar activity.

The most recent maximum, ‘The Modern Maximum‘, ran through the years 1914 –the end of the Centennial Minimum– to 2007.

Global temperatures increased during this period (aka “catastrophic global warming”) and they have only recently, after a multi-year lag –tied to ocean inertia– started to come back down (-0.54C since 2016 (as of Nov 2022), according to the UAH, and falling).

Returning to previous Grand Solar Minimums, ‘The Dalton Minimum’ was another key one.

It ran from 1790 to 1820 — and is clearly identifiable in the sunspot chart below:

Sunspot count–from solar cycle 12 to the start of solar cycle 25.

Like the deeper Maunder before it, the Dalton brought about a period of lower-than-average global temperatures.

Historical documentation reveals that the Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over just 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production. Therefore, modern notions that a GSM would decrease temperatures by just 0.01-0.02C are another ‘explain-away’ fallacy. However, this mainstream admission –that GSMs result in cooling– could be seen as a positive, because we’re no longer arguing if the phenomena exists or not, we’re now only debating its impact.


Low solar activity impacts Earth’s weather/climate via a number of different mechanisms.

The most immediately noticeable is the reduction of energy entering the jet streams which changes the jet’s usual strong  and straight ZONAL flow to a weak and wavy MERIDIONAL one — and depending on which side of the stream you’re on, this means you’re either in for a spell of anomalously cold or warm weather and/or a period of unusually dry or wet conditions:

This is a phenomenon long-predicted by those who study the Sun, and it’s one forecast to intensify as the Grand Solar Minimum continues its deepening. All of us are now watching this play out in real-time, whether we know it or not.

Along with low solar activity’s impact on the jet streams, other ‘global cooling’ mechanisms include: the great conjunction, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and also The Beaufort Gyre—and its immense impact on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

But faced with these realities, I still question what it will take for the IPCC and their MSM lapdogs to admit that what they’ve been pedaling for the past 30+ years was based on a warped ideology, and not science. Logic has now been twisted so as to mean that Arctic outbreaks (renamed Polar Vortexes) are a direct result of global warming, i.e. warming = cooling, which is a perfect example of what Orwell dubbed “doublethink”: the acceptance of contrary opinions or beliefs at the same time, especially as a result of political indoctrination.

I worry that the draconian future Orwell described is fast materializing; I fear the climate will be the least of people’s concerns in the coming years, as we seem to be destroying civilization all by ourselves: digital IDs, CBDCs, carbon taxes, energy shortages, ration cards…

‘Global Warming’ or ‘Climate Change’ is the excuse for these poverty-inducing, freedom-restricting measures, but rather than a man-made phenomenon capable of being taxed away, the so-called ‘Climate Crisis’ can be fully explained by a natural and cyclical ‘buckling’ of the jet streams (Zonal flow to Meridional flow) caused by historically low solar activity:

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31 Thoughts to “Grand Solar Minimum: The Future Looks Cold”

  1. Dave Black

    G’day Cap,
    An excellent article about the global cooling that the “Warmists” continue to deny because it interferes with their covert objective to reorganise Society in their elitist favour.
    To add to your article, can I suggest that your many readers look up a video clip by Valentina Zharkova on the effects of magnetic radiation fluctuations affecting the climate. As a brilliant mathematician and astro physicist she left me for dead with the mathematical derivations, but the correlations of her theory to the real world evidence was astounding.
    Her prediction for SC26 and a modern minimum are superb, as is her forecast that global warming will then continue through to 2600 after which we will enter another cooling phase.
    We won’t be around for that, but we will be around for SC26 and the Modern Minimum

    1. Alby

      Spot on Dave. Zharkova and her team have done incredible work and the clincher is that their models work backwards very accurately, thus making any forward projection highly probable. None of the warmists can come up with anything like that level of scientific and mathematical certainty.


      i would also like to mention the work of JOHN L CASEY who was talking about the grand solar minimum way before Zharkova and has wrote 3 books on the subject, COLD SUN,DARK WINTER and UPHEAVAL ,the latter discusses the big earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that can occur between the years 2018 to 2038 and could be as powerful as the 1811/12 new madrid ones in the USA.

    3. Juha

      Yes Dave. The gsm denialists will have cold wakening to the truth. Nowadays the duscussions with these denialists are difficult because their emotions are surfaced rapidly. It is similar with all other ongoing psyops like plandemic, ukraine, lgbd+ etc. The brainwashing is done through emotions and that is why rational duscussion is not possible.

  2. Alby

    While the jetstream changes invoked by the reductiion in solar energy make sense, they don’t quite fit the uniformity shown in the diagrams. Mark Vogan displays the jetstream charts on his vlogs and they can be quite fragmented. Just now though an incredibly zonal flow has developed across the entire north Pacific, encompassing half the hemisphere and the warm air it is driving is pushing the recent record frigidity from the US and bringing above average temperatures. The knock-on is to bring above average temperatures in the southern UK and very high (16 degrees above average) temperatures across Europe. This will probably see the northern snow mass decline somewhat.
    The other major influence appears to be the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the phases of which have significant weather implications. What all this means for the overall climate remains to be seen, but it’s far more complex and variable than either pole (forgive the pun) of the climate argument are prepared to admit.

    1. Jmec

      Thank You for this! It may explain why we are seeing rain and comparatively high temperatures in Eastern Ontario, Canada right now. Personally, I would much prefer snow! We’ll likely end up with a slushy, icy mass once it does refreeze.

  3. Dallas Schneider

    Excellent Summary Cap! Very needed!

    Note the Maunder Minimum came as a precipitous drop in sunspot activity, whereas today’s drop occurs after a 40 year decline!
    This could mean this GSM is far longer and colder than the M.M.

    So the MSM predicts a “Terrific Warming to Occur for New Years” it is only when compared to the terrific cold of Christmas. The “Terrific Warming” gets into the 50s F. for New York City, up a magnificent 31 F. above Christmas Day’s high. I cannot help but be reminded of the August 2022 lull of zero hurricanes only to be hit by Hurricane Ian 28 Sept 2022. It is if nature is saving up the energy to hit us with it later. I am still 90 days later straightening out the aftermath with for instance 120 feet of 8×8 feet of tree debris along the street in front of my house. My lot is 205 feet wide, so that leaves just enough room for the two entrances/exit for the circular driveway. It’s a traffic hazard as I cannot see oncoming cars on the one exit. Pray they can avoid me as I pull out!!!

    So enjoy the last day’s warmth of 2022!!
    2023 and beyond as the title says “The Future is Cold”!!!

    Oh, I do plan to return with a new identity and a new body, completely in control of the new organism as in an evolutionary manner of growth and learning to see what is happening in 2300!.
    Being having just celebrated my 76th Birthday this past Dec 2022 I was wondering why my muscles were stiff in the morning. Besides any toxic residue situations I realized the body was saying it was time to die. Well, I cannot let the body of troops the body calls cells mutiny, so I am ordering them to delay the onset of Rigor Mortis til after the moment of death, not before!!! LOL!!!
    Time to get to work now!!!

  4. Mystic’s Mystic

    Convergence zone, the solar concentrator reaches the Arctic.
    When the sun reaches the Tropic of Capricorn and then begins it’s trek back towards the north. The reflected sun light bouncing into space off of the huge Northern Hemisphere snow pack, will converge at some point in the atmosphere with some of the sun rays that completely miss the earth but still travel through the earth’s atmosphere. A focal point of solar radiation. Reflected rays combine with non reflected rays. With the new future of a snow pack that is moving further and further to the south this phenomenon will be seasonally present. To illustrate the prediction of convergence moving toward the Arctic I’m going just pick a starting point. Let’s guess 50 degrees north. The true starting point may differ with snowpack coverage and size.
    Now we have a hot spot in the atmosphere that rotates around the planet as the earth turns. At lower latitudes, parts of the earth are shielded from the sun light so at this point in time you only have a hot spot. As the days go by and the sun continues it’s movement northward toward the Tropic of Cancer, the hot spot moves more and more northward until it arrives above the Arctic.
    The two converging sun rays primary and reflected reach the atmosphere above the Arctic but now it will be in the same location above the north poll 24 hours a day.
    Does that contribute to Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)? Maybe, but it is pretty much impossible that this convergence doesn’t happen. Does it actually create a hot spot?
    Under cloudy and clear skies it may differ.
    What do you think? The power of double sun light might explain Arctic warming in GSM increased snowpack conditions.

  5. Dallas Schneider

    Good Point!!!

  6. .50

    Fake Media never reports on solar minimums or solar maximums. No grant money for scientists either, unless they peddle alarmist lies and fraud. I suspect those “climate lockdowns” are next as a control mechanism for the peons.

  7. Hubert Gans

    I hope we get only a moderate solar minimum, like the one of the 1800s, and not a Maunder Minimum type event.

    I have a question for Cap: Have you heard of the Winter Gate-Keeper Hypothesis of Javier Vinós ? In my opinion it provides some good explanation on how our planet is able to cool itself as a function of solar variability. Maybe the Jet-Stream meandering is related.

    1. Mr. Lucky

      Hope is not a good strategy. It tends to make one complacent. We are on trend to experience a weaker minimum than the Maunder.

    2. Jmec

      Hi Hubert – A very interesting hypothesis!
      I read the summary found at
      Let’s hope they are correct with the following prediction:
      “A grand solar minimum is highly improbable according to our interpretation of solar cycles, which is a relief. Based on past evidence, a grand solar minimum sets the planet into a severe cooling trend.”

  8. Henk

    Ignoring the worldwide geoengineering program which began in the fifties is not smart, to say the least. They f*ck up the weather and destroy nature and humans health, intentionally cause floods, hurricanes, tsunamies, extreme droughts, extreme rainfall, extreme hot weather, extreme clod weather, trigger vulcano eruptions
    I think almost nobody of the visitors on this site have ever heard about artificial created weather.

    1. John Galt's Offspring

      Surprise! This one has!
      Go to
      Interesting website.

      1. Henk

        Loaded with patents, documents, newspapers.


      JOHN L CASEY discusses geoengineering but he reckons its of very little consequence to what a grand solar minimum can do and isnt worth worrying about and the cost of doing it globally would be far too high.There was the peculiar case of hurricane Erin on 911 which has caused much debate on conspiracy sites,some say the hurricane was geoengineered and used for its power to bring down the twin towers but i have done some research into it and believe Erin was faked and have two satellite images of Erin and another hurricane that followed a week later called Gabrielle that proves the image of Erin was faked.

  9. Dallas Schneider

    Great article on winter in a 98% (980,000 PPM) CO2 Atmosphere!
    See pics of frozen dry ice on the ground!

    “Patchy carbon dioxide frost, or dry ice, can be seen inside a crater during winter in the Martian Southern Hemisphere.

    NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona”

  10. Scott

    “It stands that the return of a cyclically waning Sun would instantly flush alarmists’ claims of never-ending temperature increases down the proverbial pan.”

    Septic system, for your convenience. — Cigarettes are very hard to light once they are wet. Please do not deposit them in pan.

  11. Chris Norman

    The reason the Arctic is “warming” is due to the manipulation of data.
    About four years ago I read a paper warning that, by the Authors calculation, this GSM would be approximately 7% colder than the Maunder.
    Good luck with that.


      i dont see much debate about this 2024 milankovitch cycle either ,some are saying that the big 4 outer planet alignment then will pull the Earth slightly away from the sun causing a very cold winter in the northern hemisphere

  12. yeopper

    Call me nuts, but I’ll bet you nobody has modeled what would happen to the jet stream as a result of lowering water vapor at key altitudes, as a result of lowering evaporation in the equatorial pacific due to lower solar output.

    I see it everywhere, folks making things real complicated because it feeds their ego, after all they spent years getting their useless degree listening to boring lectures.

    Water vapor and sun control the climate, period. So we will have not only colder winters but hotter summers and megadroughts in various places worldwide- specifically those places that had dry air to begin with. Chemistry is possibly the only true science left, and they know about a swell little negative feedback thing called evaporation and condensation.

  13. Trevor

    Has anyone overlaid the solar cycles over the UAH satellite derived temperature data?

    Maybe mean lowest temperatures may show a better correlation rather than average daily.
    I have had a cursory look at mean daily global solar exposure (summaries by month and year in MJ/m2) for 3 official weather bureau stations in coastal eastern Australia (Cairns 17deg S, Bundaberg 25 deg S, Hobart 43 deg S) . All 3 data sets start approx 1990 – presumably using identical equipment and methods & based on ground mounted equipment.

    They all show every year the expected peak in summer and minimum in winter – with the range greatest for Hobart and least for Cairns – again as expected. BUT I cannot see any obvious cyclical type of trend between years as the sunspot numbers increase then wane.

    As an aside my split system solar hotwater system (at Bundaberg) follows the within year solar exposure trend. Coming out of winter once the BOM solar exposure is => 18 MJ/m2 (mid August) our water system roof panels are heated by the sun sufficient to not need electric boosting. However by mid May the daily BOM solar exposure drops below 18MJ/m2 and so we run out of hot water (from the sun alone). This has happened every year as far as I can recall for past 10+ years (except this year but prob a hot water system failure – still under investigation)

    I have observed that when the weather is heavy cloud and rain – both the BOM solar exposure and the KWh output from my solar electric panels are both very low, as expected, but on days of good electricity production (clear sky, cold wind) there is a far greater range in the number of KWh now produced on my roof as compared to the range of BOM solar exposure at the nearby Bundaberg airport.

    1. If my solar hotwater system was installed at Cairns it would work well, except for 3 months in winter, whereas at Hobart it would ONLY work for 4 moths over late spring and summer ie DUD SYSTEM to install at Hobart

    2. solar exposure data seems to fit seasonal trends (at least for heating water at Bundaberg) but not a match to trends in sunspot numbers year by year.

    3. Solar exposure data not so good for predicting expected electricity output from solar panels. No idea if this has any annual trends – just based on some spot comparisons.

    I was expecting to see the annual trend in BOM solar exposure data following sunspot activity – unless the critical wave lengths are only, say, impacting the upper atmosphere/jet stream and not directly effecting the earth’s surface.

    I am not doubting the climate effects overall on high latitude regions (of N hemisphere) as indexed to sunspot numbers BUT why is this not showing up in on ground solar exposure data in eastern Australia? Is this why the IPCC claims that solar exposure appears to be inconsequential as a climate driver?

    1. Dallas Schneider

      Interesting data!
      I really appreciate your real world record keeping and analysis.
      My thought is the sunspot influence is not in the same light frequency as the solar panels intercept. I suspect the sunspots contribute to warming through the global electric circuit. Think “where do auroras go?”.
      Also I suspect solar panels contributing to atmospheric heating. On year 2016 I drove through a solar farm southwest of McCamey, Texas. You can see this is a desolate area. The highway ran immediate next to the solar farm. I was keeping track of the temps outside of the pickup as in August it was running 108 me with no AC in the vehicle. At the solar farm the temp jumped to 115, quite hot for the area.
      I experienced the solar low Jan 2010 freezing in SW Florida that killed 1 million fish in the Everglades, and had 100 dead up to 3 ft long in the waters in front of my mobile home there. That came after two periods of no sunspots for 30+ days in a row in the previous year. So when I spotted 3 periods of no sunspots for 30+ days in 2020 I made my famous prediction on Sept 20, 2020 of “Unimaginable Cold” coming this winter. That is still posted of the website. The website with the sunspot data referenced in the prediction was purged about six months afterwards. The censorship is hard to believe even when it happens to you. Then we had the Feb 14, 2021 Texas freeze killing over 700 people. Any guess what 2032 will bring?
      So let’s keep an eye out for any periods of 30+ days without sunspots before then Not on the solar minimum, as they might occur. The Texas Freeze took six months for the cold to develop.
      Looking forward to see if the Hunga Tonga Max cooling effect around 15 Feb, possibly longer, can be detected.

  14. Anthony

    la niña. plus Tonga, plus a quieter sun and you may end up with some really cold weather… Oops, the USA just did…..

  15. Jay Dee

    I have great fun with the warmists by claiming the the cold weather is due to anthropogenic sunspot depletion brought about by all the solar energy panels that humans have installed. It is of course total nonsense but forces them to admit some sciencey sounding terms are valid and others are not.

    1. Stein Albrecht

      In Europe there is no winter at all. We are 10 degrees above the average winter temperatures. No cooling at all. You are just picking data, if there is a sub zero then you immediately ringing the bells. The reality is sad and irs feaking hot!

      1. TW

        So what? It’s warm air from the tropics. Nothing to do with CO2 so what are you flapping about? It’s out of our control.

  16. Alan Keyes

    It’s a mystery as to what occurred in Australia during these solar minimums.
    It’s a large continent surrounded by a much larger body of water as opposed to Europe and the northern hemisphere. They are mostly land and not as much moderating water.

  17. Nigel Rudlin

    Been following you for years Cap, and shared the links whenever possible to try and wake people up. Given that climate is indeed cyclical, as evidenced by earths history, there is also something of a ‘Black Swan” event that given so much of the historical data going much farther back might be about to surprise everyone .
    I believe this is worth taking a look at given the great lengths the ancients went to pass this knowledge down to our time. Check this 27 min video:

  18. Nigel Rudlin

    The follow up to that amazing video noted above, ties into the documentary series currently on available on Netflix, hosted by Graham Hancock (Ancient Apocalypse) where the timelines of this catastrophic event lines up with where we are right now in terms of the cycle repeating itself. The final episode is quite astonishing as we are smack in the celestial window where this could very well be about to repeat.

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